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Macroeconometric Forecasting

edX · The International Monetary Fund · 1 HN comments

HN Academy has aggregated all Hacker News stories and comments that mention edX's "Macroeconometric Forecasting" from The International Monetary Fund.
Course Description

Learn how to create and assess forecasting models to predict macroeconomic variables such as inflation and economic growth.

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  • Ranked #23 this year (2022) · view
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This course is offered by The International Monetary Fund on the edX platform.
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Hacker News Stories and Comments

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There are many different types of models used for different purposes.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/ne...

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2013/12/microfoundations-il...

the models people use to explain/illustrate are more toy models, micro-founded DSGE models, for forecasting typically people tend to use empirical models.

One approach would be to do a college intro to macro textbook or MOOC and then possibly a course on forecasting, like https://www.edx.org/course/macroeconometric-forecasting-2

there isn't much of a consensus on what 'properly' means but IMHO a good start is just understanding the IS/LM analysis and what the curves look like under assumptions from classical models, keynesian, and keynesian-classical synthesis (basically says more keynes in short run and more classical in long run), phillips curve, lucas critique.

then some monetary economics (old school macro tends to ignore financial sector), international trade, open economy macro.

with maybe a time series forecasting book/course thrown in

complementarity is king https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/laibson/files/seven_proper...

doing macro as an investor is a little bit like doing weather forecasting as a sailor ... it's important to understand the kinds of conditions you might be sailing in but probably a bit futile and pointless to do a very deep dive into the math of it.

my question would be what is the best book or course for time series analysis?

dr-neptune
Rob Hyndmans book is a great quick intro:

https://otexts.com/fpp3/

If you want to jump in the deep end (aka you know good chunk of mathematics), you could skim Hamilton's Time Series Analysis

A good way to learn is to do a bunch of time series analysis, kaggle has some

RockyMcNuts
thanks!
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