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'Oumuamua Is Not Aliens

PBS Space Time · Youtube · 4 HN points · 5 HN comments
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To learn to think like a scientist check out http://Brilliant.org/SpaceTime

To repeat the space time maxim: it’s never aliens … until it is. So let’s talk about ‘oumuamua.


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Bialy & Loeb (2018)
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1810.11490

Micheli et al. (2018)
https://go.nature.com/2A9FncQ

Last year a visitor came to our inner solar system. To us it looked like a faint spot of light, moving quickly relative to the fixed stars. We’d seen similar things countless times before – lonely rocks, remnants from the formation of our solar system, drifting on their endless orbits around the sun and faintly glimmering with its reflected light. Nothing unusual about such asteroids and comets, but what made this object special was its trajectory. It was not in orbit around the Sun at all. Rather, it appeared to have fallen in from interstellar space, and was on its way back out again. The object is 1I/2017 U1, better known as ‘Oumuamua. It’s the first chunk of interstellar space debris we’ve ever spotted passing through our solar system. It caused a justifiable stir at the time. Hell, WE even did an episode on it.

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For me it went into the opposite direction after listening to 'omuamua is not aliens' video [1]. I think Dr. Loeb, contrary to what he says, is exploiting this a bit for some personal gain and fame.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wICOlaQOpM0

The PBS Space Time video series, written and hosted by Lehman College astrophysicist Matthew O’Dowd, has a nice analysis of popular 'Oumuamua theories:

"'Oumuamua Is Not Aliens" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wICOlaQOpM0

And I really recommend this PBS Space Time Video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wICOlaQOpM0

He makes excellent points that given historical data, a mm thin solar sail really shouldn't be our first conclusion instead of a collection of rocks that broke apart and refused back together (think of a combination of Shoemaker-Levy and Ultima Thule).

And given the short length of time we've been observing space, chances of one of the first things we see enter our solar system be a tumbling, solar sail would mean that interstellar space is chock full of wildly tumbling solar sails! We need to take base rates for probability into account and realize that since most of the stuff we've seen in space is just rocks and most of our models predict just rocks in interstellar space, the probability of it being anything other than just a rock is very low.

This whole media obsession with Avi Loeb definitely feels like an example of news organization paying too much attention to the institution an academic works at and not how the rest of their field thinks about their ideas.

PBS SpaceTime's excellent coverage of Loeb's paper: 'Oumuamua Is Not Aliens

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wICOlaQOpM0

If you like videos, PBS Space Time published one recently about the paper that tests the light sail hypothesis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wICOlaQOpM0
Nov 21, 2018 · 4 points, 1 comments · submitted by shadykiller
DerekL
Title is misspelled. Right now, the title of the video is “'Oumuamua Is Not Aliens”. That is also a misspelling, because it's name is “ʻOumuamua”, starting with a ʻokina, the Hawaiian letter, not an apostrophe.
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