HN Theater @HNTheaterMonth

⬐ peterkelly

The thing that impresses me most about this is that none of the devices require an internet connection or report any data they collect back to the manufacturer and "selected partners".

⬐ readingnews

And I still can not afford that Eames Chair the kid sits in... it costs more than my car now. What a future.

⬐ capex

Great. This is from 50 years ago, and many of the ideas shown have come true. What about the next 50 years? Any video suggesting what we'd be able to see around the house in 2070?

⬐ RalfWausE

I have the bad feeling that in 2070 its more about barbecuing rats on a stick over a fire in an old oil drum while having a shotgun on the ready if the canibals show up...

⬐ highwaylights

Ah, you want the Westinghouse Post-Apocalyptic Quick-Evacuate Off-Grid Zombie avoidance shelter.

It’s on page five hundred and two, sir.

⬐ adventured

In 50 years human-size labor robots will be common in households that are middle class and above. They'll recharge locally, and won't be meant to travel great distances while powered on, so their battery packs won't need to be massive. They'll be capable of performing a decent variety of mundane household labor, including laundry, dishes, mowing the lawn, picking up / organizing rooms of the house, mopping floors, cleaning the bathroom. We'll organize these spaces to an extent for their benefit, to better comply with how they do what they do. Appliances will be marketed for use by humans only, or mixed use (either robot or human can operate).

As a consequence of these robots humans will increasingly forget how to pick up after themselves (as a routine) and or never learn it in the first place as children.

What, you don't have a refrigerator? What, you don't have a washing machine? What, you don't have a television? What, you don't have a dish washer? What, you don't have a microwave? What, you don't have an Alice bot? And so on it goes.

Work spaces will have similar robots to pick up after employees and perform other assisting tasks in the office. Silicon Valley or its equivalent will get these robots first as a new perk that will be lampooned initially (the nerds that can't even take care of themselves) and then it'll spread across corporate America because of the productivity benefits and convenience aspect.

The same bots will displace very large amounts of labor in retail outlets like Walmart, Target, Walgreens, CVS, Costco; and fastfood chains.

It's not a question of if this is going to happen. It's a question of whether it takes closer to 25 years or closer to 50 years (I'd bet on 35-50 years) to hit an inflection point where the robot avalanche gains significant momentum. These won't be hyper competent everything robots, like you see portrayed in eg I, Robot (the Will Smith movie), they'll be quite specialized and quite limited compared to science fiction, but still very useful.

In the style that the smartphone ate one thing after another, the humanoid robot assistant will eat one labor task after another, and that's how they'll be advertised initially. Robot v1 does X; Robot v2 now does X, Y; Robot v3 now does X, Y, Z. It'll be a productivity arms race in the early days, and then the improvements will rapidly slow down and the robots will become a fashion competition or something else, as they saturate the easy wins in labor elimination.

⬐ scyzoryk_xyz

The only doubt I have about this is the amount of electricity this personal labor servant robot will cost. I can imagine that what you describe is a certainty for the rich, but I do wonder where the cut-off will be for the rest of society. I can imagine a reality where those who don’t have such robots, will want to work hard to get them, and a number of lower-cost, less energy intensive helper bots will cater to the needs of those of us who can’t afford the full standalone-Alfred model.

There will be a billionaire with a 100 of these to do random shit with.

⬐ ben_w

Electricity is usually much much cheaper than food calories — 2500 kcal is about 3 kWh, apply your local energy and food costs — so electricity won’t be the limiting factor, but construction cost/longevity and AI quality will be.

Assuming equal capacity (not any time soon but might happen eventually), anywhere that electricity was cheaper than Germany’s famously expensive average of US$0.45/kWh would be able to afford to replace any human labourer with a robot, even if the humans were at the UN threshold for abject poverty (US$1.90/day, which is why I gave German electricity in USD rather than EUR) and that human somehow worked productively for 33h45m per day.

⬐ mwint

Electricity is super cheap, really. You can move an entire car a mile for $0.025 - $0.125, depending on your state. I can’t see electricity prices being an issue unless we really bungle the building of energy capacity in the near future.

(My Leaf gets ~4mi/kWh)

⬐ Vecr

Some people might (probably not that many on an absolute level, tens of millions worldwide possibly), most people will have what they have now but much less new and more beat up, as the market gets saturated with used/fixed appliances. That's the good future, the bad one is where everything is garbage and can't be fixed at all.

⬐ ehnto

Everything is already garbage and can't be fixed at all, so I'm afraid I can't see why that would change.

Individuals can put in the effort and make their life more repairable, maintainable and higher quality. But it takes time and money, which is short supply for most.

⬐ lettergram

While I agree-ish, we already have very cheap general purpose cleaners you can hire. I imagine a robot will be more expensive and less robust. I can see stores and corporate offices, but idk about a middle class home.

⬐ axlee

Any company working on this at the moment? If it's bound to happen, I assume the research has already started.

⬐ lettergram

Tesla and Boston dynamic comes to mind

⬐ patrickk

Boston Dynamics were bought by Hyundai. It seems their tech will be integrated into vehicles rather than domestic robots

⬐ somethoughts

I've actually wondered if we'd be faster to full home automation if you made slight modifications to the home itself to enable more purpose built factory style automation to take over.

- switch to zero wrinkle foldable clothes and use an all in one washer dryer -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gIi4u6NdV0

- self cleaning toilet and bathroom - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CCI-ysfFr8

- faux wood tile floors for robot vacuums/mops

- smart oven with food prep subscription - https://www.tovala.com

- grocery delivery service

Really its the self cleaning bathroom that probably isn't all that common just yet. The rest can be done today.

⬐ knodi123

> - self cleaning toilet and bathroom - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CCI-ysfFr8

My wife watched that video, and was nodding along... "It's a bit wasteful of water, but I like the idea!" And then the video ended with "And the latest version is transparent."

She yelped "why the HELL would they end with a statement like that, and not explain or go into any kind of detail?!?!?"

⬐ atdrummond

FWIW they mean something like these toilets: https://youtube.com/watch?v=KGoKsv2omBU

⬐ Hellbanevil

In 50 years, I see gated communities of wealthy people being guarded by fixed mounted automatic AI controlled machine guns, or high powered lasers.

We won't have hugh areas of homlessness because the powers at be will be actively using that Broken the Window Pane theory to harass people to the point they commit suicide.

Technology will advance, but only the wealthy will be able to afford it.

The wealthy capitalists will rely more heavily on Globalism to peddle their wares.

I don't even foresee a chit show like current India. Meaning the wealthy live in ivory towers butted up to absolute slums.

The American wealthy will not stand for that. They don't want to see the squalor.

(In all seriousness, I'm concerned about how America is going to treat the huge spike in homelessness post Covid. I don't like what I'm seeing now. Meaning the powers at be are just harassing the homeless until they move along. I'm embarrassed the way my town of Sausalito made a minor problem of homelessness (Anchorouts whom have been there for over a century), and made the current recipients of a ham handed approach to rid Richardson bay of anyone who is poor much worse. Yes--that last sentance is grammatically terrible, but I'm just to tired to fix it.)

⬐ 2OEH8eoCRo0

Many of the ideas in this are better than what we ended up with. I don't see anybody logging into online accounts to use their accoutrements.

This video makes me want to cry.

⬐ deckeraa

The microfilm recipe book made me think this -- the recipes were organized and ad-free, unlike most online recipes today.

⬐ lowwave

Online ads really ruined many things for people. No body likes online ads, yet for some reason it is just keep on going.

⬐ kalleboo

The only thing people like less than online ads is actually paying money for things.

⬐ pintxo

Largely triggered by the fact that you can only judge the value of information after the consumption. And consumption of information is a one time event. So the only really established payment is subscriptions which people seem to be reluctant to engage with for certain types of information.

⬐ endgame

Trouble is, you pay money _and_ you get the ads! So why pay for things?

⬐ janci

On the other hand, people do not mind giving things for free. Those recipes are not published by some chef that gets paid for creating them. It's the community that created them. If people could easily self-host ad-free catalog of their recipes with a global catalog for a cost of internet service they already have, they probably would. But the emphasis is on ease of use and discoverability.

⬐ kalleboo

Yeah for recipes in particular I guess it's odd there's no kind of recipe equivalent of Wikipedia

⬐ MichaelZuo

Very few residential customers have static IPs which is a prerequisite to hosting anything.

And to be fair to ISPs a static IP does cost money to provide.

⬐ janci

That is what I meant - if only self hosting would be easy a d required no additional services. Unfortunately it isn't.

⬐ potiuper

Dual doored refrigerator. The purpose of the island. Extend to dual doored cabinets and drawers. If no ceiling vent for refrigerator, then island becomes peninsula for wall heat exchange.

⬐ walrus01

The electric outdoor barbecue sure didn't become a thing, turns out that people prefer meat cooked over gas or coals...

also the electric oven that will cook appetizers in 6 seconds? I think an overly optimistic idea of how powerful a consumer microwave could be.

The kitchen island with built in slide out fridge/freezer definitely did become a thing in higher end real estate.

also, I want that Eames chair from the living room. But maybe not with the white leather...

⬐ elil17

Those super powerful microwaves were real. You just need them to be huge and expensive. Turns out 6 seconds vs. 6 minutes doesn’t matter much compared to the unit being the size of a fridge vs. a toaster.

⬐ JohnJamesRambo

Would the six second microwave work well? Would it obliterate your food in one region, while another isn’t warm?

⬐ jmole

yes, microwaves don't penetrate that far.

It would be like tanning under the sun vs tanning under a giant magnifying glass.

⬐ walrus01

I'm guessing these days even when you get a built-in microwave in a modern kitchen (such as above stove with ventilation hood unit) it's still a 1500W max load thing designed to go on a normal household 120V 15A circuit. You'd need to go to some expensive high end stuff before you have like a 240V 30A capable microwave.

⬐ Nextgrid

Another problem with electric grills/BBQs from my experience is that they’re just not powerful enough - even the smallest breeze is enough to blow away the little heat created by the heating element and the food takes ages to cook as a result if outdoors. I’m sure it’ll perform better indoors but then you have to deal with the fumes.

⬐ pintxo

I had the opportunity to compare all three (coal, electric and gas) at the same time, preparing the same meat. Not a single person in our group of ~10 could tell which energy supply had been used in the preparation. But you need a proper electric grill with a hood and ~2kW power. This also limits the size of the grill, so if you need to feed a group of 6 or larger, maybe focus on gas or coal over electric. Or maybe someone builds an electric bbq to connect to an EV charging station?

⬐ Infernal

On a close listen, you find out that the "electric outdoor barbecue" is electric by dint of electric starter and electric motorized rotisserie. Sounds like even the "electric barbecue" runs on charcoal or gas.

⬐ cube00

I got that same sense from the indoor fireplace they show early on in the video.

In 1959 Westinghouse presented an amazing visionary concept for future living with their "Westinghouse Total Electric Home":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyrTgtPTz3M

Many of the presented ideas are eubiquitous today, and in a luxury modern house, almost all of the presented features exist.

I wonder if any vision for future living exists today that will turn out to be as prophetic as the Westinghouse Total Electric Home.

Better to just watch the video than blogspam that just extracts still images from it and adds "insightful" commentary https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyrTgtPTz3M

⬐ Arbalest

Despite it being old and somewhat irrelevant now, I just can't watch an advert for that long.

⬐ bb123

That seems like a loss for you more than Westinghouse. They don't even exist anymore.

⬐ jacobush

They make nuclear fuel :)

⬐ ocdtrekkie

I actually love a good "future vision" ad. They're often pretty inspiring. One of my favorites is Corning's "A Day Made of Glass": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38

⬐ netsharc

The contents of the blog post and video are different things, the blog post isn't just reiterating the video, but talks about how the technology looks outdated but the design of the home still looks timeless (at least in the author's opinion).