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Jeff Bezos - Regret Minimization Framework
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All the comments and stories posted to Hacker News that reference this video.Jeff Bezos’s “regret minimization framework” is pretty good: https://youtu.be/jwG_qR6XmDQ
⬐ maxwellWow, I thought he was full of shit when I heard this years ago, but I still had some respect for the guy.This is like watching an old Kevin Spacey interview.
Where does very publicly cheating on his wife and building a company where drivers routinely poop in bags fit into this bullshit framework?
At least he's obsessed with his customers, right...?
Want to reduce regrets when you're 80? Read what people actually say on their deathbed, e.g.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/top-5-regrets-of-the-dying_n_...
Definitely no "gosh, I should've started that startup to opportunistically crush competition in the name of customer-centrism".
⬐ raw_code69Well, I guess you miss the point here. You got caught up in the details while forgetting that Jeff Bezos subjective regret projection was a form of having the courage to live a life true to himself instead of what was expected of him as a EECS engineer..⬐ maxwell"Having the courage to live a life true to [oneself] instead of what was expected of [one]" by their society, partners, employees, contractors makes a fine definition of villainy.No, don't buy the Woz trope.
Jeff Bezos has a great interview where he talks about his decision to leave his cushy Wall Street job and start a website selling books. He talks about how he used a "regret minimization framework" where he projects himself into the future and imagines which decision he would regret the least.I have used this technique multiple times myself to help with otherwise fraught or overwhelming decisions, and I think it's a great way to shift your frame of reference.
Interview where he describes it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ
⬐ JoeAltmaierAs a trick for solving a single problem, ok sure. That sounds like chess, where a failure loses the game. Not the same risk of failure in life decisions (well, skydiving maybe). To minimize later regret sounds terribly hesitant, cautious and small.So many other ways to organize your life: joy maximization is one for instance. There's the money thing. And character should come in there someplace, not just utilitarian nonsense.
Einstein(?) said it this way: "When I want to make a decision, I flip a coin. If I'm disappointed in the outcome then I know I wanted the other choice." Sounds about like the same thing (only a century earlier)
Jeff Bezos frames this concept fairly well too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ
⬐ rossdavidhInteresting! I will never make 1% of the money that man made. But, I don't regret that either. :)
Jeff Bezos "Regret Minimization Framework" [1]A regret minimization framework "I wanted to project myself forward to age 80 and say, 'Okay, now I'm looking back on my life. I want to have minimized the number of regrets I have,'" explains Bezos. "I knew that when I was 80 I was not going to regret having tried this. I was not going to regret trying to participate in this thing called the Internet that I thought was going to be a really big deal. I knew that if I failed I wouldn't regret that, but I knew the one thing I might regret is not ever having tried. I knew that that would haunt me every day, and so, when I thought about it that way it was an incredibly easy decision."
⬐ BeniBoyIt seems reckless to get your life advice from the richest person in the world without taking survivorship bias into account[1]⬐ rohit89⬐ fifnirNot sure that is applicable here. His advice is basically to minimize potential regret. A variation of "better to try and fail than never try at all".⬐ inimino...from someone who tried and succeeded.Good for him that he won't have any regrets about treating the workers in his company like shit⬐ baxtrThis approach is highly flawed because you optimize for the age of 80 where your body and mind are heavily limited. Being happy at 80 isn’t something I’d optimize for. Being happy along the way even if you’d regret it later seems to be more reasonable. Best of course happy along the way and happy later.
Use Jeff Bezos 'Regret Minimization Framework' to decide [1].Basically, when you are 80, will you regret having tried and possibly failed or regret having not tried at all?
Granted you aren't going to be Amazon probabilistically but it will definitely make your life more interesting and put you in control of it and fully responsible for it.
Personally I'd rather try and succeed or fail on my own than just be a cog in the machine and possibly be on a ship that sinks out of my control or merely latching onto success. I'd rather be the captain whether she sinks or sails smoothly, hopefully the latter.
I went fully independent six years ago, originally just planning on a year, and there have been times of awesome and times of rough waters, but she is still sailing and it has been an adventure I know I won't regret having embarked on. Three of my six years are the highest revenues/income I have had annually in my career but one was the lowest ever, prepare for more volatility if you do.
If you do, my recommendation is make good habits early, cut your costs, be disciplined, aim for revenues as early as possible, work hard but work smart, be sure to take time off, and especially enjoy your successes and learn from your failures. Ship on the regular, and if you aren't, kick it in gear to go all in.
This question is eerily similar to my current situation: hoping to go on a 6 month sabbatical starting in 2017. My goal is to, basically, work on things that I've always dreamed of doing but haven't pursued because of the demands of everyday life.See Jeff Bezos' regret minimization framework for inspiration: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ. Imagine yourself at 80. What would you regret not doing?
Jeff Bezos had some thoughts on this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQPersonally, I think you should get out of there before your brain turns to mush and falls out. Other posters are telling you to instead perceive it as a blessing to work on these things that you find mundane and boring, but I strongly disagree. To quote Paul Graham, "If you're worried that your current job is rotting your brain, it probably is."
Don't quit, but start applying/interviewing for a new job. You will need to have a good explanation for why you're looking for a new job so quickly after starting, but that's doable. You're in a pretty strong position if you start interviewing for new jobs before quitting -- at least that makes it clear that you weren't fired, and it'll sound credible when you tell them that you're just not challenged enough by your current job.
⬐ buwilliamsGrateful for your helpful advice. I was so moved that I blogged about this at my blog, Daily Autodidactic, http://www.dailyautodidactic.com/post/77180224570/how-using-.... Again, thank you for taking the time to help this person and me.
Hearing Bezos's regret minimization framework was one of the things that helped to make an easier decision to leave my job to start a company (I left Amazon, ironically). Here is the original video which this quote is taken from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ
⬐ boomzillaOne could also argue that Bezos already made up his mind and he just needed to find a line of reasoning that supports his decisions. Well, isn't that how science works, when you do experiments and then come up with theories to support the results?⬐ ams6110It's also easy for him to say since he was successful. I know a fair number of people who tried "this thing called the internet" at about the same time and had their asses handed to them a few years later. Most don't actually say they regret it, but more than a few were burned badly enough to not try it again.⬐ blackoil⬐ jacquesmMost People will not regret being involve in 'the thing called the internet', they may regret other decisions like poorly managing cash flow, not understanding marketing or software or people...Disproving theories is as big (if not a bigger) part of science as it is to come up with theories that support certain results. After all there could be many such theories but which one is the true one you can only find out by setting up experiments to explicitly make the decision which theories are false and which are not (or at least, less so).
This might help. The Jeff Bezos regret minimization framework: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ
Jeff Bezos' regret minimization framework: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQWe genuinely wanted to fix the UX problems associated with porn.
wow you have lots of good feedback here in this thread... probably still requires you to parse through it all though... i have a feeling though this question has been asked multiple times by different people on HNi'll just add some thoughts (though it will likely be redundant to large degree) because I empathize with anyone who's seeking for guidance on life decisions (I know what it's like)
1) agree that you should think about product management where technical and social skills combined can be powerful but I'd recommend you do (2) below first
2) based on how you've described your state, inclined to agree that you should take a real hard look at what is the source of discontent with your life and not jump to conclusions that it's being an engineer (as suggested, it can be the project, company, other parts of your life, lack of challenge or growth, etc)... maybe it would help to take a vacation to an international destination in the developing world & rough it (no nice hotels or restaurants etc), live among the local people and think (suggested to get you out of your comfort zone)
3) people who say they are "bored" (even if just trying to simplify the communication in summary form) or describe a lack of passion for anything as an alternative... frankly, those are warning signs that you should iterate on (2) above for a bit. no one can tell you this though, you'll need to be in tune and aware enough to search your own gut for what's going on inside you
4) though self-help folks like Tony Robbins generally make me puke (my first reaction, though i know it can be unfair), he has an interesting mental framework for you to iterate on (2) and navigate why you're so-called "bored" and what to do about it as a TED talk: http://youtu.be/Cpc-t-Uwv1I
5) in my past, i've read a lot of stuff on career guidance (what color is your parachute, blah blah) but none of it was useful to me. the best thing i read was this HBR article. key takeaway is that finding meaning through work for those that lack direction is a cycle of test & learn (similar to the lean startup approach)... it's more geared for biz types but the principles can apply more broadly: http://www.insead.edu/alumni/newsletter/january2003/herminia...
6) Well, you probably already know. But classically speaking, the type of person you're describing isn't the type to do a startup successfully. The classic type is someone driven to make change because of some kind of passion. Not that you couldn't do it and be successful because it seems there are all types of people who do "successful" startups. But on the surface, IMHO signs don't seem to point to this option as a good one for you to quit your job for at this time.
Good signs would probably be that a) you work on side projects solving problems that annoy you b) you are actively engaging and talking about ideas with good people (at work or not) who you could be co-founders with
More than anything, if after mulling it over, you realize that what's lacking is challenge (or possibly the meaning or value of the bigger goals you're working on with your technical skills) then also realize you don't need to be the idea person. You can join someone who already has the passion and an idea and rally against that vision by being part of a solid, small 2-3 person team. Or just find a co-founder and work together for 6 months, build something with some traction and then apply to YC! :)
Or you could join another company (working for 1 company might not be enough data for you to know that coding isn't what you want to do no matter how good you think the current environment is) assuming early 20s means you only worked at 1 place
7) Listen to Bezos talking about his decision to do Amazon: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ
Good luck!
Jeff Bezos's Regret Minimization Framework: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ
⬐ un1xl0serWhile I don't like to regret anything (just course correct), I enjoyed his technique and it made me think. Imagining what you would regret helps, thanks for sharing it.
mcbeth,We have a similar background, and in similar situation I left my job to go for it. I'll share my story here:
After graduating from university, I joined HSBC's international management program where I worked for 3 and a half years. I was living the dream: getting paid a six figure package, living in a nice house and working decent hours (i.e. I had most evenings and weekends free and about 6 weeks of holiday a year). In a large organization like HSBC, getting work done takes time and a lot of consensus building. Sometimes the pace got frustrating but this was compensated by getting to travel the world. As part of the international management program, I moved to a different country about every 2 years to work in a different part of the bank. Traveling when you're young is exciting. I didn't have a girlfriend and in the short time I was with the bank, I lived first in London for 2 months, before moving to Shanghai for a year and a half and finally to Mexico City for two years.
3 months ago, at 25 years old, I left my job to start learning to code from scratch and start a start up. I left for some of the reasons you gave: politics was getting worse and I found myself taking more time trying to convince different parties and teams of my work than the time I took to do the work itself. But I didn't leave because the bank was so much more political than it was when I had started, I left because I wasn't prepared to put up with the politics and the red tape anymore.
The difference was that I realized I didn't want to work for anyone anymore. 2 years ago, while living in Shanghai, I stumbled into the local start up community and befriended some start up founders who completely changed my perspective on life. Until that point, most of my friends had been working in banks, consultancies and law firms. It was normal to sometimes spend 6 months building consensus and convincing teams to work on a project that might only take 1 month of effort. We accepted that it was normal for the perception of hard work to be more important than hard work or even effective work itself. We put up with corporate life because it was normal and because we didn't know any other.
The start up life I saw wasn't glamorous but it so much more exciting. While I lived in a 2 bedroom penthouse apartment in a fancy part of Shanghai, my friend shared an apartment with his co-founder and 4 other hackers he hired to work out of his living room. But unlike me, he wasn't worrying about deadlines and making a good impression. Instead, he was working on things that mattered like figuring out how to get through the month with enough cash to pay his employees. His life was the life of an entrepreneur, a roller coaster ride of emotions with very high highs and very low lows, and I wanted his life.
And so with a promising career ahead of me, I quit. I figured that in the worst case, I would fail multiple times, burn through my savings and get a job at 28. Of course, I had already decided that I wanted more than anything to start a start up.
My advice, as some have already suggested, is to find out what you value. If you value being at the top end of the corporate ladder, keep pushing, it's a long road ahead. If you value having disposable income and the opportunity to travel, keep your job. If you value your personal life, keep your job but take your pedal off the gas a little and prioritize your personal life.
If you're serious about a start up, ask yourself if you can afford to quit and then ask yourself if there's any other alternative. Start ups are difficult and demoralizing, even if you're wildly optimistic and the kind of person who normally achieves what you set your mind to.
If you're still serious, put together a budget, and see how long you can last just on your savings. If you don't have any liabilities like a mortgage or a family and you've saved some of your cushy salary over the years, you'll probably find that you can survive for a while.
For me, it came down to asking and answering these questions:
Q: What will I regret when I'm 80 years old? What am I going to regret more: taking a shot at a dream and failing, or never having taken a shot at all? (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ)
A: Taking a shot and failing.
Q: What's the realistic best case scenario end game? I.e. If I look at someone who's 15 years ahead of my in the same career path and has done a good job of getting promoted, recognized and rewarded, am I happy doing what he's doing in 15 years?
A: No.
Q: What's the worse thing that can happen?
A: I'll get a job at 28. I'll probably make less money, but I'll at least have 3 years of international work experience at a major bank.
Q: What if you never get such a sweet job? Six figures is a lot of money for a 25 year old!
A: I don't have kids, I don't have a mortgage, I don't have debts and I do have a enough savings to tide me over for a few years. It means that I won't live with the same degree of financial freedom (e.g. watching my spending, going on fewer holidays, eating out less, etc.) but it's a price I'm prepared to pay.
For most people, the last few questions about financial security are the most difficult. At 29 without a family, you're young enough that you can start over if things don't work out. If you have enough savings and you're serious, go for it.
Good luck.
This answer is in response to a question about why I left my job. The question was deleted before I posted my reply below:---------
It came down to asking myself these questions:
* Jeff Bezo's Regret Minimization Framework
Q: What will I regret when I'm 80 years old? What am I going to regret more: taking a shot at a dream and failing, or never having taken a shot at all? (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ)
A: Taking a shot and failing.
* Future Utility Framework
Q: What's the realistic best case scenario end game? I.e. If I look at someone who's 15 years ahead of my in the same career path and has done a good job of getting promoted, recognized and rewarded, am I happy doing what he's doing in 15 years?
A: No.
* Money and risk
Q: I'm 25 with 3 years of work experience at a major international bank, what's going to happen if I screw this up and waste 3 years of my life?
A: I'll get a job at 28. I'll probably make less money, but 3 years of work experience isn't too bad.
Q: What if you never get such a sweet job? USD 100k is a lot of money for a 25 year old!
A: I don't have kids, I don't have a mortgage, I don't have debts and I do have a enough savings to tide me over for a few years. It means that I won't live with the same degree of financial freedom (e.g. watching my spending, going on fewer holidays, eating out less, etc.) but it's a price I'm prepared to pay.
For most people, the last few questions are going to be the most important. Being relatively young, not having liabilities and instead having savings definitely makes leaving your job easier.
Relevant: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQRumor is that the "boss" was actually David E. Shaw himself.
⬐ earleIt's not a rumor, Jeff Bezos did indeed work at D.E. Shaw & Co. So did quite a few well known people in technology.⬐ None⬐ hasenjNoneI already regret not learning serious hacking in high school and university.I got lots of A's (and B's), mind you, and I did work on projects of my own and everything, but I really saw it as just a hobby. I was always on windows, mostly dependent an IDEs, and I always thought I gotta be doing something more serious, like gasp oil and gas.
Good thing I'm still 25.
But I really feel like I should've started thinking about doing a startup when I was 18 or 20.
⬐ gregpillingI am 41 with a product to be launched soon. It is never too late.
For those who want it in video format, here's Bezos on regret minimization http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ
From my answer on Quora (http://www.quora.com/What-made-you-quit-your-comfortable-sal...)Jeff Bezos' Regret Minimization Framework:
"...it really was a decision that I had to make for myself, and the framework I found which made the decision incredibly easy was what I called -- which only a nerd would call -- a "regret minimization framework." So, I wanted to project myself forward to age 80 and say, "Okay, now I'm looking back on my life. I want to have minimized the number of regrets I have." I knew that when I was 80 I was not going to regret having tried this. I was not going to regret trying to participate in this thing called the Internet that I thought was going to be a really big deal. I knew that if I failed I wouldn't regret that, but I knew the one thing I might regret is not ever having tried. I knew that that would haunt me every day, and so, when I thought about it that way it was an incredibly easy decision. And, I think that's very good. If you can project yourself out to age 80 and sort of think, "What will I think at that time?" it gets you away from some of the daily pieces of confusion. You know, I left this Wall Street firm in the middle of the year. When you do that, you walk away from your annual bonus. That's the kind of thing that in the short-term can confuse you, but if you think about the long-term then you can really make good life decisions that you won't regret later."
See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ
A big payout is definitely a large factor in jumping ship if you're arrogant enough to believe that you can attain such a thing. If you just want to "work at a startup" without having much of an idea about which startup and no intention of starting one yourself, then frankly in my opinion, jumping ship isn't for you. If you're this concerned about your financial status today, at a company you don't drive the vision for you're going to find it harder to drum up the ambition and drive it takes to get through times where a huge financial payout is not as certain.
I think everyone overestimates their ability to influence the outcome. 85% of venture backed startups are no longer operating in 3 years. Startups are fragile critters, and those 85% presumably were larger high-aptitude and hardworking folk who all THOUGHT they'd at least make it the the "walking dead" group (which presumably makes up most of the remaining 15%).A lottery is probably a bad analogy. It's probably more like a couple of hands of blackjack.
I think your first point is the winner. See Bezos' Regret Minimization Framework: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ
"I have never let my schooling interfere with my education."-- Mark Twain
"So I wanted to project myself forward to age 80 and say, 'Okay, now I’m looking back on my life. I want to have minimized the number of regrets I have.' I knew that when I was 80 I was not going to regret having tried this. I was not going to regret trying to participate in this thing called the Internet that I thought was going to be a really big deal. I knew that if I failed I wouldn’t regret that, but I knew the one thing I might regret is not ever having tried. I knew that that would haunt me every day, and so when I thought about it that way it was an incredibly easy decision. And I think that’s very good."
-- Jeff Bezos, Regret Minimization Framework (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ)
Did Jeff Bezos answered this question?
⬐ aarloI like this a lot.The other part of being 80 is forgiving yourself for the mistakes you did make :)
⬐ middus⬐ Noneor ... forgetting ... ;)None⬐ ALeeReminds me of the "Death" portion of Steve Jobs Commencement speech. It seems that when presented with the end, our decisions become much clearer.⬐ cpetersenAnyone else having trouble viewing this using YouTube's HTML5 viewer?⬐ cpetersen⬐ bgravesWork's now.For the YouTube deprived, here's a text based interview talking about this concept...⬐ leftnodeAlso for the YouTube deprived, but not the headphone deprived, I've uploaded the audio to my site so you can listen to it, at least.