HN Theater @HNTheaterMonth

This issue highlights one of my main fears about a pandemic such as COVID-19: if enough people with the necessary amount of knowledge to maintain necessary infrastructure die without sufficiently and timely trained replacements, then civilization as we know it becomes one more step closer towards total irrecoverable collapse.

The prevalence of COBOL and other older programming languages in many parts of the world's critical infrastructure (unemployment claims here, finance, government, defense) means that the average age of someone maintaining these systems tends older. Older people tend to have more health issues. From the summaries of reports I read about COVID-19, the majority of the deaths happen among the elderly and those with other health conditions.

The idea of civilization collapsing might seem fanciful and farfetched, but the idea struck me after watching a video that was submitted here on HN and the videos it references [0][1][2][3].

[0] Jonathan Blow - Preventing the Collapse of Civilization (English only) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pW-SOdj4Kkk

[1] Preventing the Collapse of Civilization [video] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19945452

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiNmTVThNEY - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiNmTVThNEY

[3] Eric Cline | 1177 BC: The Year Civilization Collapsed - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hyry8mgXiTk

⬐ AmericanChopper

For all of these large, old organisations that still use COBOL, the risk isn’t that they run out of COBOL engineers to hire. COBOL is a very simple programming language, it was designed to be as simple as SQL. SQL was designed to be so easy that non-programmer business analysts could use it, COBOL was designed to be the same thing, but for non-DB business logic. Though you could debate how successful either of them were.

The risk these organisations face is finding people capable of maintaining their particular decades old COBOL spaghetti. Which is really just an ordinary key person risk.

⬐ throw_m239339

The irony for me is that SQL is the language that stood up the test of time the most. All other are/were gamble.

Obviously it's not fit for all domains, since it's a DSL for data management, but I'm often tempted to push as much business logic into the DB with PL as I'm allowed to instead of having to do things in the application code itself, and it paid off many times, as I have rarely seen a project moving from a database to another, while application code is often rewritten in many different languages for no other reason than management's whims. I probably saved some businesses millions of dollars in code porting/rewriting/migration.

> The risk these organisations face is finding people capable of maintaining their particular decades old COBOL spaghetti. Which is really just an ordinary key person risk.

In my experience, the biggest issue is the complete lack of code documentation, as organisations relies on a handful of developers to maintain their codebases and when these developers retire, suddenly, nobody can understand an architecture.

⬐ scarface74

I actively avoid companies that put all of their logic in the DB. It’s harder to version control, harder to unit test, much more work to rollback. You can’t keep it in sync with the source code etc.

I can’t just switch branches and know the state of the system at the time the branch was created.

⬐ throw_m239339

You're making good points.

First, I'm talking about a PL "middleware" layer than does not necessarily involves restructuring the data itself (basically, instead of querying tables or views, you query stored procedures or functions).

When it comes to version control, wouldn't a migration system suffice to assess the state of that layer?

As for unit testing, I kind of agree, it's possible though, like any other programming language.

⬐ scarface74

That doesn’t help. You can’t imagine the times I see

  Get_Customer_1
  Get_Customer_2
  Get_Customer_3

As far as version control, if someone does make a change to the unversioned “Get_Customer” and I want to switch branches. How do I make sure all of the stored procedures are in sync?

⬐ AmericanChopper

This is pretty much my experience with stored proc codebases too. I do consider SQL to be a very simple language, but store proc codebases tend to become incredibly complex. Finding an engineer that can maintain SQL code is very easy. Finding one that can maintain a particular maze of 1000+ stored procedures, views, functions, table triggers... is a completely different question.

⬐ Zenst

Many generational skills die out. Your grandparents would make their own butter, bread, many things today that are not so common. Then more, many skills lost over time and fact we are still working out some historical things got created, you can imagine rosetta code sites being a good thing to keep alive for the future. http://rosettacode.org/wiki/Rosetta_Code

⬐ mirimir

> Your grandparents would make their own butter, bread, many things today that are not so common.

I've never made butter, but I have used raw milk. And I've failed at whipping cream, by overdoing it. So from what I've seen, "making butter" is basically just agitating cream until the fat clumps, and then pressing out the whey.

Making bread, I admit, takes more skill.

My mother knew how to make blood pudding. But that's not something I miss very much.

⬐ bcrosby95

The difference you're missing is we're still relying on COBOL, but we aren't relying on grandparents to make the butter and bread we eat lest we starve.

⬐ Zenst

If you think of the butter as software running upon a compter and the process of manufacture the programming language, then you start to see it differently.

Though my main point I was making is that skills get lost over time for various reasons and how later you try to rediscover those skills for various reasons. I dare say that being able to make butter would be handy in some situations, imagine being isolated and access to a cow milk easily and your local shop not having any butter in stock for a while.

⬐ Grimm1

Not ideal, but it's not like it couldn't be migrated to another language and COBOL docs are readily available to at least understand the language. We would find a way.

⬐ Zenst

I've worked for a software migration company and for some languages and the bulk of code you can automate the migration. However you also need to migrate the data and then anything that touches that data, so whilst you may want to migrate one program, that program will be a suit of programs and systems making it a more complicated task than it appears on the surface.

If you can data warehouse aspects off, that's great and can slowly bite away, migrate chunks bit by bit. Though one of the last will often be the database itself. Report generation is often an area that will hit resources hard and can also be easiest to migrate away towards something better using a system that periodically syncs the database onto another platform with all the latest do it yourself easy accessible tools. That allows those wanting the reports to be able to make and change that themselves removing a lot of code development and main system overhead.

With that, knowing the language is not even half the battle, the business knowledge would be the lion's share and to integrate the two skills effectively, that's where the money is.

You could have a payroll system, migrate line by line, logic by logic from COBOL to C. Yet the way the data is handled, the nuances of the way the languages round numbers, store data, formats, handle exceptions or early termination. It's not just a case of setting the right flags in the compiler and job done.

But yes, there is always a way. As always, the devil is in the detail.

⬐ Kye

One solution I saw somewhere here on HN the last time it came up was to carefully virtualize the existing systems so they have snapshots to restore from when things go wrong. That opens the possibility of moving the data to more modern systems with a translation layer between the 40 year old systems and the new systems that slowly replace them.

⬐ synack

Given enough time I'm sure we can figure it out. The problem is that they're not looking for archaeologists, they're looking for people who lived among the dinosaurs.

⬐ pjc50

Like Gibson's remark about the future already being here but not evenly distributed, the collapse is already happening but unevenly distributed.

Puerto Rico was without electricity for months. Some parts of the West will recover from the economic effect of the pandemic quickly. Others won't, without help from the center.

⬐ selimthegrim

How is that different from say 1918? Centralization?

⬐ cptskippy

> then civilization as we know it becomes one more step closer towards total irrecoverable collapse.

I love how pop culture always portrays the collapse as coming from our inability to maintain or repair some mythical machine or technology. Never once did I imagine that it was the state welfare software.

⬐ vegetablepotpie

Jonathan Blow has a point that we cannot assume things will keep getting better. Although he says that we cannot fix software because we have chronically not done it for decades, his thesis is that the solution is to make software simpler. The issue I have with making things simpler is that if we don’t know how to fix things because we haven’t done it for decades, how can we make things simpler, when we haven’t done THAT for decades either? His argument rejects human exceptionalism, while also relying on it for his solution.

My point is that this absolutely is a funding and priority issue. I work as a developer who maintains legacy FORTRAN code. It was written in an era where global variables and Go To statements were the norm. Everyone who wrote it is retired or dead. It’s a pain to work with and there are parts that I haven’t yet gathered the courage to go in and change. However, me and my team have made substantive changes to it that are robust, that we have rigorously tested. This is not impossible, but it’s also not cheap or fast. It took me a year to understand how this blob of code works.

My team is young, we’re in our 20s, with backgrounds in CS, mechanical engineering, and physics. Certainly all systems are different, but if we can understand old FORTRAN, similar people can understand old COBOL. If people made it, people can understand it. We also know how to fix many broken things and how to fix many bugs. Often were told by management “not right now” and “we don’t have funding for that.” It’s frustrating, but that’s how the world works. They at least have funding to pay us to do what we’re doing now.

The point is that you can fix legacy systems, you can hire new people to do it, but it is expensive and it takes time. The whole issue is not whether we can or can’t, we can. The issue is: who can pay for it and will they?

⬐ pm90

This is a very hard problem. Not a silver bullet but I’ve often found that metrics are the best way (again not guaranteed) to get the money (wo)men on board. If you can demonstrate concretely how the legacy code affects your operational readiness or agility, it might make it a better sell to invest in refactoring. However the lack of standard tools to do this is a problem.

The problem with code is that most non technical companies don’t have a clue how this thing works. They use analogies. And for most folks the analogy is that of a machine that once built never breaks down. If you can demonstrate viscerally how bad the system is, it can help get better support.

I'm watching a great presentation on the topic of the Bronze Age Collapse right now, in fact: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hyry8mgXiTk

⬐ adrianratnapala

I like the "it's complicated" theory, but it also a bit of a cop-out. Can we not have a meta-theory? Here are three candidates:

1) Climate change. Doesn't directly cause famines because people adapt; but the adaptation might be e.g to become wondering marauders. Thus war, destruction famine etc.

2) Technological change. Iron-working upset existing power balances. The political results were different in different places but in the end there was a whole lot of war and chaos.

3) Luck. History is complicated and random things happen at all scales. Including total collapses of civilisations.

In each of these, the proximate causes of destruction are a complicated networks of events. But there are higher level explanations behind them.

Are these more general explanations testable? Are there good arguments for or against any of them?

⬐ tiatia

"Including total collapses of civilisations."

It seems to be an inherent thing of civilizations to collapse.

The Collapse of Complex Societies https://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Complex-Societies-Studies-Ar...

The collapse of our society seem to be inevitable. You don't have to believe is but I don't think we can beat mathematics in the long term:

"There is No Steady State Economy (except at a very basic level)" http://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/21/there-is-no-steady-stat...

Limits to Growth–At our doorstep, but not recognized http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-02-12/limits-to-growt...

Wealth And Energy Consumption Are Inseparable http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2012/01/wealth-and-energy-...

Galactic-Scale Energy http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/07/galactic-scale-e...

Quote: "But let’s not overlook the key point: continued growth in energy use becomes physically impossible within conceivable timeframes."

⬐ woodandsteel

You might be right that our civilization is going to collapse eventually. However, in many of the advanced economies, we have had gdp growth has been separated from energy consumption for several decades.

I am more worried about the effects of advance technologies, including it getting in the hands of people like ISIS who want to take down Western Civilization.

⬐ tiatia

"I am more worried about the effects of advance technologies, including it getting in the hands of people like ISIS who want to take down Western Civilization."

This is true and this may be another nail in the coffin.

"The threshold necessary for small groups to conduct global warfare has finally been breached, and we are only starting to feel its effects. Over time, in as little as perhaps twenty years and as the leverage of technology increases, this threshold will finally reach its culmination -- with the ability of one man to declare war on the world and win." John Robb

⬐ denim_chicken

Here's a paper published just last week titled "Is Decoupling GDP Growth from Environmental Impact Possible?" (Their answer is "no.")

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/asset?id=10.1371/jo...

⬐ tiatia

"However, in many of the advanced economies, we have had gdp growth has been separated from energy consumption for several decades."

Do we?

"In recent years, a large share of the world’s manufacturing has been moved to developing countries. This shift gives the illusion that the developed countries can get along with less energy to produce their GDP. This is not really the case. The developed countries find themselves with a need for a large amount of imported goods. Their heavily services-oriented economies tend to grow slowly. This is because, with little energy use, it is difficult for these economies to make productivity gains." https://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/10/11/why-energy-prices-are-...

⬐ Spooky23

Plus the current model is really fragile. Come up with a way to disrupt 4-5 pacific ports at the right time and the world would plunge into depression due to the supply chain disruption.

⬐ xtiansimon

> "I like the "it's complicated" theory, but it also a bit of a cop-out. Can we not have a meta-theory?"

Isn't a "systems collapse" the meta-theory you're looking for?

⬐ DonaldFisk

Joseph Tainter's theory (The Collapse of Complex Societies) is even more general. Societies collapse when "continued investment in complexity as a problem-solving strategy yields a declining marginal return". The idea is that initially, solutions to problems are found and society becomes more complex as a result, but the benefit of the solutions exceeds the cost of the complexity. But as the society develops, the benefit in the form of solutions to problems become smaller and the cost of servicing the additional complexity becomes larger, until the cost exceeds the benefit. Then things break down and society is forced to become a lot simpler.

⬐ gaius

It's also that to manage the complexity, individuals become hyper-specialized. So when a crisis comes along, that civilization can't repurpose people quickly enough to cope.

⬐ DonaldFisk

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects." — Robert Heinlein

⬐ icebraining

Said by a character who lived to be 2000 years old.

⬐ jacquesm

It's my favorite Heinlein quote by far and I try to live by it but in the short term there is much to be gained for an individual by specializing, specialists tend to rake in the big bucks, generalists not so much.

⬐ jacquesm

A direct representation of this can be found in law. Countries start out with simple laws, then as society gets more complex the laws become substantially more complex as well, to the point where tax codes, private and criminal law are no longer wholly comprehensible by any single individual.

It shouldn't be a surprise that societies collapse though, everything has a life-cycle, even stars and the universe as a whole, it would be extremely surprising if something as simple as an organization made up of fragile humans would manage to last longer than say a millennium or so.

⬐ icebraining

it would be extremely surprising if something as simple as an organization made up of fragile humans would manage to last longer than say a millennium or so.

Would it? In 868, the County of Portucale was created; in 1143 it became independent, with Vimaranes as its capital. Nowadays, Portugal is still around and Guimarães is still an important city, and while it certainly has its problems, I don't think it's in any danger of disappearing. Is it that exceptional?

⬐ tl

Take Ethernet for example: we've had multiple distinct technologies that used the name, but we always call it ethernet (I suspect that we only avoided calling wi-fi "ethernet" is because wi-fi is shorter).

It is much the same for countries, who die and reform in approximately the same geographic location and keep the name to preserve the illusion of continuity. Portugal's history is far from free of such reformations, civil wars, etc...

⬐ pantalaimon

It scares me a bit that this very much describes the current situation

⬐ jacquesm

It shouldn't overly scare you: It required a complex society to produce someone like Tainter, so it isn't proof of imminent dark ages, merely that to be able to posit a theory like this you'd have to be alive roughly now.

Just like the future isn't equally distributed we're now so mobile that you could likely outrun a collapse of your society if you saw it coming.

You're going to have to give up some creature comforts though, and possible more than just a few.

⬐ Spooky23

I don't like that theory. Sounds a lot like the current era.

⬐ M_Grey

Mumford had a similar view on the fate of cities.

"...the blind forces of urbanization, flowing along the lines of least resistance, show no aptitude for creating an urban and industrial pattern that will be stable, self-sustaining, and self-renewing. On the contrary, as congestion thickens and expansion widens, both the urban and the rural landscape undergo defacement and degradation, while the unprofitable investments in the remedies…serve only to promote more of the blight and disorder they seek to palliate."

⬐ ajb

For those who don't want to watch the video, its about this book: http://www.npr.org/books/titles/341580791/1177-b-c-the-year-...

⬐ arethuza

I inherited a fascination with this time period from my father who acquired it from an Oxbridge educated colleague in the RAF during WW2 - who took copies of Homer on their adventures.

My fascination was fed by the excellent 1980s BBC series "In Search of the Trojan War" with Michael Wood, which covers some of the same topics:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkbUQKyie_w&list=PLH2l6uzC4U... [NB Warning of nipples].

⬐ xtiansimon

Great video. Thank you for posting.

Not a scholar of ancient history nor anthropology, so I'm inclined to gloss over the social mechanisms. What is fascinating to me is the application of "systems collapse" theory.

I'm thinking of two contexts. On the one hand there are complex systems; Systems too large for humans to comprehend in total. This inclines us towards abstraction, dimension reduction and model-theoretic approaches which only simulate effects.

While on the other hand we have sudden collapse of complex systems. Popular examples which come to mind include Malcolm Gladwell's "Tipping Point", cascade failure (ex. Collapse of the World Trade Center, multiple organ failure).

Now I can add 1177 BC to my list of examples.

⬐ dmoo

Also the In Our Time Podcast http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07fl5bh

⬐ tankenmate

With the mention of drought and famine in the Levant possibly leading to internal rebellion it makes you think of modern day Syria.[0]

[0] http://www.npr.org/2013/09/08/220438728/how-could-a-drought-...

⬐ peter303

Horses and iron weapons. Neither are mentioned in the Iliad, just before this period. And it is documented when the Egyptions learned these technologies in the New Kingdom after being pummeled by more capable barbarians.

⬐ YeGoblynQueenne

I bet I'm far from the only one who wants an RPG supplement for adventuring in that era.

⬐ wkafou

The analogy of ISIS and sea people is spot on.However, we can safely say the ISIS was an outcome from a chaotic situation in the first place ; not caused by famine or climate change perhaps but much more sinister reasons.

⬐ None

None

⬐ aorth

Love it! Reminds me of Dan Carlin's "Kings of Kings" series in his Hardcore History podcast. The world was fascinating back then. Even the names of people/places were epic: Ninevah, the Elamites, the Assyrians, Ahura Mazda, Marduk, etc! So epic!

http://www.dancarlin.com/hardcore-history-56-kings-of-kings/

⬐ nemo1618

Is this the same period cited by Julian Jaynes in his theory of the bicameral mind?

http://www.meltingasphalt.com/hallucinated-gods/

⬐ wfeui3

Oriental Institute youtube channel has some great videos.

⬐ jchernan

Thank you for posting, I really enjoyed this video. What books or videos would you recommend to gain general knowledge about history from the Bronze Age to the fall of the Roman empire?

⬐ random_upvoter

Cline also did a wonderful series of audio lectures on the archaeology of Troy. (The Modern Scholar: Archaeology and the Iliad: The Trojan War in Homer and History)

⬐ None

None

⬐ maxerickson

What about disease?

Also, the displacement of god-kings by divine creators?

⬐ etqwzutewzu

tl;dw please?

⬐ Nokinside

To add to what others said:

The cultural collapse was so total that with writing systems disappeared. Greek had to develop reading and writing again.

⬐ merpnderp

What percentage of the population was actually literate? <1%?

⬐ kowdermeister

- 8 civilizations collapsed

- Cause unknown

- Don't trust sea people :)

⬐ kowdermeister

+ 1: don't build major cities on fault lines.

⬐ AndrewKemendo

Someone should have told David Burnham before he built SF.

⬐ Pica_soO

I wonder, if a catastrophe is to be expected, is it cynical, to create replacement infrastructure (sewage, waterpiping, streets, electricity) at a safer location nearby and once the disaster strikes to reroute the refugee streams too that location?

⬐ kowdermeister

I'd call that responsible instead of cynical. If you know in advance that an asteroid is about to hit Earth, except the exact location you'd do the same.

In the case of SF, an entire continent is approaching very-very-very slowly.

⬐ arethuza

Although you may want to consider incorporating a fault scarp into your city defences:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Gate

⬐ dugditches

We don't know why bronze era collapsed

He suggests that not one thing, but a series of disasters one after the other caused it.

The reasons: Sea People(invaders/raiders) Famine Drought Earth Quake 'Storms'

Since the societies were 'globalized' and reliant on one another, these disasters happening one after another, caused domino effect.

⬐ haalcion3

You should watch in full. It was really nice.

Summary:

* It is assumed that there was no single reason for the "collapse of civilization" (in Aegean, Eastern Mediterrean, Eygpt, and Near East) between ~1200-1000 BC. At the time, it seems there were droughts, famines, earthquakes, invaders, and rebellions; havoc was caused, international trade routes cut, and many cities were destroyed.

* Parallels drawn at end to modern society with exception of the migration and/or invasion of "sea people" (actually people from several areas).

* Eric then at end says that he's not in a position to provide advice for what we should do, but seems to suggest that when history runs its course, it is likely that good things come from the destruction, citing the Alphabet and monotheism as coming after the 1200-1000 BC collapse (end Bronze Age) and fresh growth coming after a large forest fire.

I think the forest fire at the end could have been left out. While I like the optimism he was trying to relay, I think that some could take it is a reason for actively trying to light the powder keg by causing further destabilization in order to bring about a renewal.

Also, the problem with comparing the dark ages then to what would happen today is that they weren't that bad:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_Dark_Ages

Trade was not relied on as much as it is now for food, material to build shelter, fuel for transportation, etc.

Many countries today could not become self-sufficient without a great deal of death and disease if trade routes were cut off.

And, our civilization is more at risk because we rely on electronics and electricity. If a large portion of the electronic equipment were rendered unusable by a well-coordinated set of strong EMP's/nukes going off (unlikely), a very large coronal mass ejection (more likely), or cyberattack on the electrical grid (most likely), that would disable our water, food production, hospitals, and heating/cooling. Few have the resources they need to survive or even physical books to teach themselves anything that would be useful (plants in their area that are safe to eat, how to build weapons and hunt, how to find fresh water, remedies for disease using local plants). Many have not made social connections with neighbors.

Note: EMP/CME cannot be mitigated by storing an extra phone or computer in a Faraday cage, even if you were to have a few bikes to generate electricity for it. What are you going to do with it other than use a text editor to store recipes for roasted squirrel and dandelion stew?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3838433/The-D...

http://www.federaltimes.com/articles/emerging-focus-on-cyber...

⬐ mikhailfranco

Monotheism is not a good thing.

⬐ haalcion3

If any of those things happen, you'll need clean water. In addition to storing some water, you'll need a renewable supply. Though distillation is the best technique, some other options are discussed here:

http://www.practicalsurvivor.com/emergencywaterfiltration

Aside from reading how to make a filter yourself with mosses, carbon, and stones, this is one that's recommended: Sawyer Products SP191 Point Zero Two Bucket Purifier Assembly Kit with Faucet Adapter

As for shelter and heating/cooling, some interesting ideas here like using a tent indoors: https://dengarden.com/home-improvement/How-to-keep-warm-in-t...

More ideas:

http://www.bushcraftuk.com/forum/archive/index.php/t-37923.h...

http://urbansurvivalsite.com/ways-to-stay-cool-without-power...

Go solar, assuming the related equipment isn't damaged:

http://news.energysage.com/cheapest-solar-panels-price-per-w...

http://fortune.com/2016/06/13/solar-to-get-crazy-cheap/

⬐ sonium

'its complicated'

⬐ internaut

Beware of the Sea People.

For more real horror stories read "The Collapse of Complex Civilizations" The Ik is the shortest example of what can only be called Lovecraftian History.

What makes this material scary is that it might not be the past.

⬐ DonaldFisk

Do you mean The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter?

⬐ internaut

Yes. Watch out for sea people. Possible fish-frog hybrids belonging to the Esoteric Order of Dagon.

⬐ arethuza

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse

⬐ None

None

⬐ KhalilK

Unfortunately I can't recommend the book. It's a fascinating subject, but ... Much/most of the book is devoted to what various Eastern Mediterranean civilizations were like before the Collapse of the Late Bronze Age. It's useful as an introduction so that you can get some idea of what collapsed, but it shouldn't be most of the book.

The treatment of the collapse itself is fairly shallow. I know the collapse is still mysterious and comparatively little is known about it, but that's why a book like this should be so interesting. Surely there is enough information to fill a comparatively short book like this. The ever mysterious Sea People's are mentioned of course, but other than noting that they weren't just one group and that the Egyptians defeated one group of invaders he says little. There is the usual "they may have been from here, or perhaps there" but it doesn't go into much detail about the different theories. The possible causes of the collapse aren't discussed much either. Basically it says "stuff fell apart and here are some examples". I know that much of this stuff is far from settled but discussing the evidence and arguments for various theories is a good approach. Talking about how new civilizations arose after the collapse would have been interesting too; much more than endless detail about pre-collapse civilizations like the Minoans.

⬐ OvidNaso

Take my opinion with a grain of salt because I put this books down after only 100 pages or so, but it seemed to exemplify my main gripe with many/most popular science/non-fiction publications these days...padding. Many authors seem to have a great ~150 page thesis, but publishers push hard that best sellers are 400-600 pages.

⬐ novaleaf

that was my main problem with "The Lean Startup" too. it was really really hard to finish it when only 10% of the content was actionable (the rest anecdotal)

⬐ Spooky23

It was worse in audiobook form.

I was stuck in a jury duty situation without any other materials (I had a library play away, my phone was dead, and reading materials were taken), and I still couldn't listen to that thing!

⬐ joecasson

I often find myself reading about 30% of books like "The Lean Startup," and moving on. Not necessarily the first 30%, but overall. Understand the thesis, and move on.

I have yet to find a business book where this doesn't apply. I only finish the ones where I particularly like the writing style or the anecdotes.

⬐ ajmurmann

Have you read "The hard thing about hard things"? I found it had very little padding and was loaded to the rim with valuable information.

⬐ ghaff

It's probably even worse than that. Ages ago [1] Philip Greenspun wrote about the gap between "the five-page magazine article, serving as filler among the ads [and] the book, with a minimum of 200 pages." For the most part surprisingly little has changed although that comment was made in 2009. There are some shorter form books these days, e.g. from O'Reilly. But if you want the gravitas that a book often conveys there are still a lot of forces pushing you toward 300+ pages.

[1] http://philip.greenspun.com/writing/changed-by-web-and-weblo...

⬐ mathattack

I recall someone commenting that most non-fiction books have only 15 minutes of true comment. The rest is commentary and persuasion.

I used to feel awful if I did t finish a book because the author created it with a certain vision. As I get older I've realized how limited my time is, and I am more content with a quick skim for many.

⬐ hvs

I would say this is true of a lot of non-technical, popular non-fiction. I would consider "The Art of Electronics" [1] one of the greatest pieces of non-fiction in the English language, but that sucker's dense.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Art-Electronics-Paul-Horowitz/dp/0521...

⬐ mathattack

Yes. I think Gladwell was the target of the comment. :-)

⬐ xtiansimon

> "...much more than endless detail about pre-collapse civilizations like the Minoans."

Funny you should say that, because the author does in the book (by your description) what he describes happening in a systems collapse scenario:

[describing a systems collapse, 48:10] "It usually takes about a century, there's usually a dark age that happens right afterward. And when they're coming out of that dark age they start immortalizing the great period ... before them."

⬐ None

None

⬐ jsnathan

It's funny you say that because the author addresses this at the start of the talk. He says that when it was suggested to him by a friend that he write a book about the Collapse, he agreed only on the condition that he could distinguish himself from previous publications on the same topic precisely by talking more about what the Late Bronze Age was actually like, and what was lost.

He also says if he had to choose any period of history to live in he would choose that period.

I don't think he should be blamed for writing what he wants to write about, but maybe the marketing of the book is a bit misleading.

⬐ solipsism

Not recommending the book is not the same as blaming the author.

⬐ catalinbraescu

Because books write themselves.

⬐ oldmanjay

No, because blaming the author for unnamed transgressions is not a fundamental aspect of not liking a book.

Eric Cline, the author of that book, is also an entertaining speaker.

I recommend his 1h youtube talk about the bronze age & genesis of "1177 BC": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hyry8mgXiTk

⬐ cobbzilla

I did not know about this talk, really appreciate the link. Thank you.

⬐ philliphaydon

Thanks for the link! (HN needs a fav feature)

I think you mean the somewhat more limited "... used in eastern Mediterranean Bronze Age tools ..."

In the video linked to by dpeck, Cline talks about Afghanistan as a tin source at https://youtu.be/hyry8mgXiTk?t=878 . He mentions Cornwall and Turkey as two other sources, with "the vast majority" coming from Afghanistan.

Cornwall provided a lot of the tin for Europe. A clue that Cline is talking about a regional supply is that he mentioned Cyprus as the source for copper, when NW Europe had other sources, like Great Orme in Wales.

⬐ yread

Excellent talk, go ahead and watch it if you have time to spare

Nice video intro/discussion about the book for anyone interested. I haven't had a chance to read it yet but it is fascinating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hyry8mgXiTk

⬐ eternalban

And 'Prologue' courtesy of Princeton U: http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/p10185.pdf

Oriental Institute talk about this book: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hyry8mgXiTk