HN Theater @HNTheaterMonth

Armies have momentum. Germany almost lost in 1941 when Barbarossa failed. Hitler managed to keep his armies from disintegrating, but it was a near thing. Japan's armies went far further then they had any right too in the same period, because of the perception of invincibility, higher morale, and everyone underestimating them for racial reasons.

It's very clear that the Russians badly screwed up their logistics chain - see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4wRdoWpw0w for a good obvious breakdown. But they also dramatically underestimated the morale of Ukrainians and also badly miscalculated NATO's response. NATO is flooding UKR now with drones, anti-tank misles and surface to air missles.

They also have failed to have clear armor and air supremacy. They have fed some of their most "elite" VDV units into a meat grinder by sending them directly into Kyiv without any support, under the thesis that the Ukrainians would leave them uncontested, or where not able to maintain a reasonable response.

Nevermind that Ukraine is mobilizing quickly (pre-war calculations where 30 days to build a effective force), while 75% of Russia's strike forces are in theater, and 95% are committed to battle.

Because of all this - Russia is in a no-win scenario. To hit their goals will result in sanctions staying in place - and eventually destroying the Russian economy or alternatively leaving them as a vassal state of China. If they retreat, they may save their army, avoid a vietnam scenario, but Putin will loose face, and Demcoratic forces will be revitalized inside of Russia.

Or they just stay where they are at. Inching ever close to Kyiv, but never winning any strategic victory.

Forces are pushing towards stasis right now.

I'd never bet on it - it's disrespectful to the dead and those fighting for their futures, and there are armies in the south that are a big problem - but I don't see a path for Russia to get what it wants. The question is how long will the sunk cost fallacy rule?

⬐ kspacewalk2

>and Demcoratic forces will be revitalized inside of Russia.

Now there's a good prediction market - who will replace Putin if he's gone soon. My money will be on the kinds of people who will make Putin himself look like a liberal democrat.

⬐ twblalock

The Russian government knew there would be sanctions no matter what happened. They had already decided to accept those even in the event of victory.

They aren't in a no-win scenario either. Kyiv cannot hold out forever. The Russians have an overwhelming numeric advantage and they can simply wait out the defenders, using that time to fix their supply lines.

It's tempting to exaggerate a Russian setback into a total collapse or a defeat. That's wishful thinking.

⬐ darawk

They certainly knew there would be sanctions, but I don't think they estimated they would be this harsh. Almost nobody in the west even thought they'd be able to unite enough to do what's been done. These sanctions have got to be far harsher than anything they anticipated.

⬐ inglor_cz

"The Russians have an overwhelming numeric advantage"

They don't, quite to the contrary. A tight siege of a city of three million would require some 500 000 troops, give or take. (Germans had 750 000 soldiers encircling Leningrad.) That would be three times as many as Russia committed to the entire theater of war.

Russian logistics are strained. They can't simply mobilize millions and somehow flood the Ukrainian territory with them.

⬐ xxpor

>Kyiv cannot hold out forever.

I agree with that, but if it takes going Full Grozny or Idlib on them, what's the point, other than saving face?

⬐ twblalock

Saving face matters a lot for dictators, who often lose power if they embarrass their countries. For Putin this is now a matter of personal survival. He will do whatever it takes to avoid an outcome that makes him look weak to the Russian public -- he clearly doesn't care what the rest of the world thinks of him at this point.

⬐ menomatter

You mean Alleppo. Idlib still under opposition/Turkish proxies.

⬐ xxpor

Ah damn, you're right. Can't believe I mixed them up.

⬐ s1artibartfast

From the Russian perspective:

If the country wont agree to NATO neutrality, the next best outcome is destroying it so thoroughly that it will be a humanitarian disaster for decades to come.

The former is a much more attractive option to them because it would pose the lest threat. The second is still favorable to a prosperous NATO and EU member.

⬐ s1artibartfast

From the Russian perspective:

If the country country wont agree to NATO neutrality, the next best outcome is destroying it so thoroughly that it will be a humanitarian disaster for decades to come.

The former is a much more attractive option to them because it would pose the lest threat. The second is still favorable to a prosperous NATO and EU member.

⬐ sorokod

I am not sure that Russia has a government in the commonly accepting sense of the concept.

As to simply waiting out, a clock may be ticking for Russians as well as for the Ukrainians. Probably not the same clock but still...

⬐ tguvot

actually it looks like they planned for a quick victory in a couple of days and slap on the hand like they got in 2014. they didn't anticipated this mess and this level of sanctions.

⬐ gvb

> Kyiv cannot hold out forever.

They don't have to. They only have to hold out longer than the Russians.

In the north, the Russians are running out of supplies and their logistics is halted so they are not going to get more supplies any time soon.

In the south, Russia appears to have better logistics and they are still moving, but slower and slower. Their southern logistics is the railroad through Crimea - that is a major weak point. They have been trying with all their might to take Mariupol which would give them an alternative (albeit road-based) logistics path but have been fought to a standstill there too.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has an open logistics path through Poland all the way to the front lines (uncontested by Russia, unlike Russia's logistics paths which are long and vulnerable) and military supplies are pouring in.

Ukraine is getting stronger and the Russian troops are running out of men, diesel, food, and probably ammunition.

⬐ tada131

From 0 day, I was shocked by Ukrainian elite twitter/facebook forces. They even continue fighting from Poland/Moldova, they never were affected by broken supply chains or blockades. I don't see any viable Kremlin alternative for this, so maybe with time they will take over and we will finally see democracy in Russia.

According to a video I found linked on another thread (https://youtu.be/b4wRdoWpw0w?t=119) Russia has moved around 75% of its principal combat units to the Ukraine border. The Ukraine invasion appears to be using a significant portion of their conventional military power.

⬐ zaroth

75% of the forces that were deployed on the border are now in Ukraine. Surely not 75% of their entire military?

⬐ gardenfelder

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