HN Theater @HNTheaterMonth

> German car manufacturers deserve everything coming to them

What's coming to Volkswagen is that they'll be the world's biggest producer of EVs. It's not that surprising. After all, they are the world's biggest car company.

2020 is the start of Volkswagen's big EV push. This is what Volkswagen's 2020 EV plan looks like:

- VW e-Up!: https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/vws-updated-e-up-offers-16...

- VW e-Golf (sold over 100,000 but will be replaced by the ID.3): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah4lrqWx8E0

- VW ID.3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPjvgXWA78E

- VW ID.4: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-mot...

- SEAT Mii: https://www.electrive.com/2019/09/11/seat-mii-available-to-o...

- SEAT el-Born: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZI7WFtwc8g

- Cupra Tavascan (maybe, not confirmed): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNYHRKp4n1w

- Skoda Citigo iV: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/new-skoda-citigo...

- Skoda Vision iV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f1g9xl6W_E

- Audi e-tron (and also the new "sportback" variant): https://www.audiusa.com/models/audi-e-tron

- Audi e-tron Q4: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiwevzHsCbU

- Audi e-tron GT (maybe 2021): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMEdiq2xTbQ

- Porsche Taycan (and the Sports Turismo wagon variant in future): https://www.porsche.com/usa/models/taycan/

More models in 2021 and more in 2022 and so on.

The Volkswagen ID.3 will be a big seller in Europe and then later on in China. It's a popular form factor with good range at a good price.

⬐ Shivetya

by end of 2021 they only expect 330k total BEV vehicles globally.. that is not a big push from a company making over ten million cars per year. now they expect to reach a million per year by 2023 but that still keeps their percentage very low.

the simple truth is, no they aren't trying very hard. they have to cater both to politicians and unions at home neither of which can sustain the job losses BEVs will lead too; not just in the manufacturing but it cascades into after market, petrol refining, gas stations, and more.

⬐ lispm

It's just a multi-year initiative. Takes a bit time to develop the cars, have the factories for them and bring the cars to market.

If you follow Volkswagen news, you can see that they are steady making progress and and have a very large initiative.

⬐ bencollier49

"VW e-Up!"

Oh dear, that name doesn't translate well into British English. Sounds like it's made in Yorkshire..

⬐ pmorici

Taycan and e-tron are both huge flops so far and the ID.3 is off to a bad start as there are reports that they are having massive problems with the cars software and are literally building the cars and plan to store them in a lot for a year while they sort out the software issues.

https://electrek.co/2019/12/19/volkswagen-id3-has-massive-so...

⬐ pgeorgi

> there are reports that they are having massive problems with the cars software and are literally building the cars and plan to store them in a lot for a year while they sort out the software issues

The plan to pre-build several parking lots full of cars before starting to sell predates the issues they face with the software. It was probably made with "let's catch any issues before delivery" in mind (which now paid off), but it's also because VW isn't a company that creates hype through limited availability and pre-orders: once the model is brought to market, you're supposed to be able to go the store and get a car in a few days or weeks.

Given that their previous models were quite software-heavy already, it's not as if this is the first time they have to bring software onto devices. I have no idea how often similar issues happened in previous roll-outs, but this is certainly the most closely watched VW model ramp-up in decades because of the novelty of them going all-in on EV.

⬐ marticode

The Taycan seems a huge success. The reviews are extremely positive (many pointing how much better it's put together than the Teslas) and production has been doubled to cope with the high amount of reservations

https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/29/porsche-taycan-reservation...

⬐ pmorici

That article was written before two key events that have probably taken a lot of the shine off. First Tesla's Model S Plaid edition was announced and seen racing around the Nurburgring. Second the official EPA range rating was released and it came in a third less than expected. Those reservation holders who's commitment so far is only a ~$3k refundable deposit are going to have second thoughts.

[0] https://www.engadget.com/2019/12/11/taycan-turbo-epa-estimat...

[1] https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-plaid-nurburgring-ne...

⬐ marticode

I think you overestimate the importance of the EPA rating for a worldwide vehicle (Europeans really don't care about the EPA for ex). The reviews are overwhelmingly positive and full of superlatives - this is the true "high end electric car" to beat now. Yes Tesla might tweak the Model S to make it a bit faster, and it's significantly cheaper, but it also feels significantly cheaper to sit in and drive, and it's unlikely to magically improve tomorrow because Porsche has had decades of refining those qualities.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vq6KEOIiMg

⬐ pmorici

The EPA rating of electric vehicle range more accurately represents highway driving range than the WLTP rating which is geared toward stop and go city driving. Hence if you are doing long distance trips on the highway the EPA rating will more accurately represent your real life experience. For those used to gas mileage being worse in cities and better on highways with gas cars electric cars are largely opposite. Lower speeds use less energy in general.

[0] https://insideevs.com/news/365941/what-car-different-results...

⬐ clouddrover

> First Tesla's Model S Plaid edition was announced and seen racing around the Nurburgring.

Hrm, does the Model S Plaid come with a free tow truck or is that an optional extra: https://www.thedrive.com/news/29946/porsche-taycan-laps-brok...

> Those reservation holders who's commitment so far is only a ~$3k refundable deposit are going to have second thoughts.

Are they? Let's see what actual Taycan owners think about it so far: https://electrek.co/2019/12/21/first-us-porsche-taycan-owner...

And let's see what the performance is like compared to a Model S:

https://www.thedrive.com/news/30467/watch-a-porsche-taycan-t...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uum9nffLasQ

But don't worry about it. There's a number of EVs which outperform Teslas.

⬐ clouddrover

Is it? Then why is the Audi e-tron outselling the Tesla Model X in Europe:

https://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2019/12/europe-november-2019.h...

⬐ pmorici

Spec wise etron competes against Model 3 and up coming Model Y not Model X. Large cars and SUVs like S and X don’t have a big market in Europe

⬐ clouddrover

No, that's just making excuses. The Audi e-tron is in no way aimed at the same segment as the Model 3.

The Audi e-tron and the Jaguar I-Pace both outsell the Model X and the Model S in Europe. The e-tron and the I-Pace are doing well for what they are: expensive luxury vehicles.

⬐ pmorici

Model S and X sales were substantially higher then etron is now before the the Model 3 was introduced.

I think the answer is to time travel to the year 2020 (it should take you about two weeks) and to also be in Europe. Here's just Volkswagen's EV models for the next year or so:

- VW e-Up!: https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/vws-updated-e-up-offers-16...

- VW e-Golf (sold over 100,000 but will be replaced by the ID.3): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah4lrqWx8E0

- VW ID.3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op4HO6GHC8Q

- VW ID.4: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-mot...

- SEAT Mii: https://www.electrive.com/2019/09/11/seat-mii-available-to-o...

- SEAT el-Born: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZI7WFtwc8g

- Cupra Tavascan (maybe, not confirmed): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNYHRKp4n1w

- Skoda Citigo iV: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/new-skoda-citigo...

- Skoda Vision iV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f1g9xl6W_E

- Audi e-tron (and also the new "sportsback" variant): https://www.audiusa.com/models/audi-e-tron

- Audi e-tron Q4: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiwevzHsCbU

- Audi e-tron GT (maybe 2021): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMEdiq2xTbQ

- Porsche Taycan (and the Sports Turismo wagon variant in future): https://www.porsche.com/usa/models/taycan/

And other manufacturers are delivering more EVs in 2020.

⬐ AtlasBarfed

Lots of models, but where will the batteries come from? Only Tesla seems to have the proper vertical integration although I've heard VW group is investing in battery factories.

⬐ clouddrover

Sweden, Korea, and China: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-batte...

Here's Volkswagen's EV lineup for the next 18 months. They're targeting everything from the low end to the high end:

- VW e-Up!: https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/vws-updated-e-up-offers-16...

- VW e-Golf (will be replaced by the ID.3, but still available): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah4lrqWx8E0

- VW ID.3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op4HO6GHC8Q

- VW ID.4: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-mot...

- SEAT Mii: https://www.electrive.com/2019/09/11/seat-mii-available-to-o...

- SEAT el-Born: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZI7WFtwc8g

- Cupra Tavascan (maybe, not confirmed): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNYHRKp4n1w

- Skoda Citigo iV: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-mot...

- Skoda Vision iV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f1g9xl6W_E

- Audi e-tron (and also a new "sportsback" variant): https://www.audiusa.com/models/audi-e-tron

- Audi e-tron Q4: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiwevzHsCbU

- Audi e-tron GT (maybe 2021): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMEdiq2xTbQ

- Porsche Taycan (and the Cross Turismo variant in future): https://www.porsche.com/usa/models/taycan/

⬐ NotSammyHagar

I have to say, that is a lot of cars. Hope they succeed. I want evs to start to be seriously pursued by 'existing' ;-) auto makers but it's been a slow slog.

> Furthermore, there's no real competition on the horizon

Volkswagen will be delivering a lot of EVs in 2020. They're targeting everything from the low end (SEAT Mii) to the high end (Porsche Taycan).

Here's Volkswagen's EV lineup for the next 18 months:

- VW e-Up!: https://www.carscoops.com/2019/09/vws-updated-e-up-offers-16...

- VW e-Golf (will be replaced by the ID.3, but still available): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah4lrqWx8E0

- VW ID.3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op4HO6GHC8Q

- VW ID.4: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-mot...

- SEAT Mii: https://www.electrive.com/2019/09/11/seat-mii-available-to-o...

- SEAT el-Born: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZI7WFtwc8g

- Cupra Tavascan (maybe, not confirmed): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNYHRKp4n1w

- Skoda Citigo iV: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-frankfurt-mot...

- Skoda Vision iV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f1g9xl6W_E

- Audi e-tron (and also a new "sportsback" variant): https://www.audiusa.com/models/audi-e-tron

- Audi e-tron Q4: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiwevzHsCbU

- Audi e-tron GT (maybe 2021): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMEdiq2xTbQ

- Porsche Taycan (and the Cross Turismo variant in future): https://www.porsche.com/uk/models/taycan/taycan-models/

And they'll have more models out in 2021, more in 2022, etc. Volkswagen means to be the biggest EV maker in a few years. They have both the investment and the scale to achieve it.

⬐ bryanlarsen

This is the same company that had to scale back production because they couldn't make 50,000 etrons in 2019. So I'll believe it when I see it.

⬐ FullyFunctional

And yet none of these many examples are really compelling compared to a Tesla (wrt. range and performance). Quality > Quantity.

I'm actually glad they are trying, but they need to try harder.

⬐ clouddrover

The Tesla Model 3 has 409km range WLTP for the Standard Range Plus model and 560km for the Long Range model. The ID.3 will have three battery sizes for 330km, 420km, and 550km WLTP at lower price points. The range argument isn't really there.

Taycan's Nürburgring performance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8m31EgQkswg

Tesla Model S Plaid's Nürburgring performance: https://www.thedrive.com/news/29946/porsche-taycan-laps-brok...

It's disappointing they're not even trying with the current Model S. The Plaid drive train is still a year away. Porsche is a year ahead on performance at this point.

⬐ rasz

Car you cant buy yet is a year ahead on performance over another car you cant buy?

⬐ clouddrover

You can buy the Taycan now. They started production a month ago:

https://www.thedrive.com/news/29865/watch-the-2020-porsche-t...

But you're going to be in a queue behind the 20,000 or so preorders.