HN Theater @HNTheaterMonth

How much of this is due to COVID?

This video considers India the next production hub, especially considering young vs. old population ratio: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKNPP8nwD_E

⬐ HeavenFox

There have been two theories:

- Since China controlled the pandemic via strict lockdown, where one cannot leave their apartments / housing compound for ANY reason, couples would be bored and get busy in bed to pass the time, resulting in a surge in birth rate.

- Also because of the strict lockdown, couples would be wary of having babies in such uncertainty. For example, if a woman gets pregnant and their compound goes into lockdown, she would have trouble getting prenatal care. Even if they can go to the hospital, they are afraid they will get COVID there.

So far it seems the second theory is closer to truth.

⬐ hlbjhblbljib

It's hard for new couples to form, when you cannot leave your apartment

⬐ dqpb

According to Google, China only really had a problem with Covid for about one month in the beginning. Since then, country wide, cases have been in the tens per day.

⬐ outside1234

And Hong Kong is democratic too

⬐ justbaker

Oh yeah, that’s entirely believable…

⬐ buzzert

I would consider the fact that 13 million people in Xi'an are currently locked down for the third week in a row[0] a continuing problem.

[0]: https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/07/china/china-xian-outbreak-ana...

⬐ dqpb

I see. That does sound quite bad.

⬐ zinekeller

Unlikely. Not saying that there's no effect, but even without COVID it's already setting alarms at CCP.

The declining population of China is a well-known problem so much that its one-child policy was progressively loosened and the scrapped altogether. Essentially, if the Chinese people (collectively) decide to focus on growing a 3+ child family, this population crunch will decline, but it seems that in major urban areas the people in general voiced that the policies might not be pro-family enough to reverse this shrinkage (with even some pointing to practices that indirectly discourage bringing up a family like workplace discrimination on pregnant women).

⬐ throwaway293d

Although I don't have any data to back it up, but I think the financial burden on children of one-child policy to support their parents made many of them turn away from having kids. It's already hard enough to support their parents, why make it even hard by supporting another generation. So now, it's a downward spiral where only the financially secure will choose to have kids.

CCP certainly succeeded in curbing the population. The question now is whether they can reverse course. My gut feeling is that as China becomes more developed, people will want less kids (as everything gets more expensive), making it likely they will fail.

Is India next? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKNPP8nwD_E

⬐ mgh2

Or just plain local real state: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29774075

⬐ known

No as per https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_percent...