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How To Update Your Beliefs Systematically - Bayes’ Theorem
Veritasium
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Youtube
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5
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Watch this for a great explanation about the statistics of testing for rare diseases https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R13BD8qKeTg
So, in order to do your job of maintaining your health, you need need to do all of these jobs:1. Learn about the symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment of your health problem 2. Assess the severity of the health problem 3. Learn about the experience of other people 4. Get multiple opinions
Bonus: 5. Learn about multiple valid solutions 6. Find doctor's blind spots
While doing all that, you pay for healthcare, which includes all that. You pay a doctor to know no1, do the no2, remember no3. You then pay for multiple of them to do the same.
But then you still get to the point where you have to decide who to believe. And it would be easy if 4 of them say the same thing. You can be pretty sure they are right[1] because statistics. But what happens when they give multiple differing opinions, like here [2].
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R13BD8qKeTg [2] https://digitalsmiledesign.com/files/Old-Website-Assets/PDF/...
Another problem for the less familiar with the Bayes theorem is what is described as the "Bayesian trap", explained by the youtuber Veritasium: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R13BD8qKeTg
Definitely.Another good idea is to show the difference between reality and data can be overwhelmingly significant.
Videos demonstrating this with examples:
- "The Bayesian Trap" https://youtu.be/R13BD8qKeTg
- "Is Most Research Wrong?" https://youtu.be/42QuXLucH3Q&