HN Theater @HNTheaterMonth

This might cheer you up. There is always hope. https://youtu.be/LxgMdjyw8uw

There's this idea that we should be sad about this. I say, if you're sad about it, I understand. I feel a little sad, too.

But I'm also curious about what comes next. What will only get a chance to live thanks to the things that have died? What will humans be able to do in the aftermath? It sounds morbid, but if you just let yourself play with these thoughts they can lead somewhere different and interesting.

The future is not full of only despair[] .

[] https://youtu.be/LxgMdjyw8uw

⬐ Scarblac

That will take millions, tens of millions of years. I don't see what use it is to be curious about that when no human will see it.

⬐ ambrose2

This argument always upsets me. You’re curious about what new species will come about in hundreds of thousands of years, millions? It’s certainly not going to be anytime soon. With the loss of biodiversity, we either have less life or more of life which isn’t preferable. I forget the best examples, but invasive species will spread further, and wreak further havoc, and then what? What kind of better world are you imagining this will enable?

>Climate change is not being addressed seriously currently, at all. And the trend is towards it not being addressed.

While we could be doing better, we've made immense strides over the past ten years, to the point where we've already avoided the worst outcomes and could possibly even limit the rise to 2°C and avoid most harm altogether.

At least, according to Kurzgesagt.

https://youtu.be/LxgMdjyw8uw

⬐ tsimionescu

> While we could be doing better, we've made immense strides over the past ten years, to the point where we've already avoided the worst outcome

This is only perhaps true if you project the current progress into the future as if this is a foregone conclusion. That is dangerously wrong - most of what has been done to combat global warming is the table stakes, the things that its easy to do and should have either been done decades ago, or are simple economic shifts (transitioning some coal power to wind and solar).

But reaching net 0 emissions is going to be extremely hard, much harder than halving our past emissions. And we have to do that in the next 30-40 years to avoid 2 degrees of warming, which is already catastrophic.

To get to net 0, we would have to replace virtually all transportation in the world with BEVs (cars are easy to replace, planes, trucks and cargo ships almost impossible, and definitely not in 30 years).

We will need to produce at least twice as much electricity as today while closing virtually all coal and gas power plants (but we don't have anywhere near enough energy storage to run the whole grid off renewables, nor is there any realistic chance to do so in the next 30 years).

And finally, we will have to close down the vast majority of industrial animal farming pursuits, which supply much of the world's food.

There is no real chance that the current rate of improvement will lead anywhere close to curtailing emissions enough to avoid 2-3 degrees of warming. Plus, the appetite for these changes may well sour as the bigger impact ones will come to pass.

⬐ throwanapple

Any thoughts on this response video?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCuy1DaQzWI

⬐ Joeri

Immense strides have been made, but I feel it is dangerous to take a too rosy outlook until the job is done. Complacency has always been the biggest threat to solving the climate crisis. On the other hand climate apathy and fatalism are also real, and equally dangerous.

The best source for the amount of warming we are heading for is the yearly UNEP emissions gap report, which takes all the national commitments and calculates global outcomes. With the currently planned measures we are heading for 2.7 degrees of warming by the end of the century. If the countries that have promised a net-zero strategy actually implement one we are headed for 2.2 degrees. Realistically there is at present no path to less than 2 degrees of warming without major political upheaval or technological revolution and we are probably heading for 2.5 degrees of warming. Even at 2 degrees the consequences are severe. We are looking at a near-total loss of coral reefs and one fifth of insect species, 40% of humanity will become exposed to extreme heat waves, many coastal areas will need to be abandoned displacing hundreds of millions of people. The effects get disproportionately worse when temperatures exceed 2 degrees of warming. So, the situation is not hopeless, but without further action we are still locked into some pretty bad outcomes, and we need to keep the pressure on with all governments to take further steps.

https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021

I think in this case it's more than that... Russia (or at least Putin) is trying to impose a certain worldview that's very regressive: pro-oil, heavy censorship, against several human rights (including LGBT), autocratic regime. I think there's a lot of merit to resisting this regime, resisting being taken by force and turned into the opposite of what they want (which was to join more progressive European countries, from what I gather).

It's all connected... if you let oil-hungry autocrats rule the world, climate change is completely out of the window. Also human rights and ideals we should all stand for.

I do want peace as soon as possible. I believe a compromise might be necessary. I think Putin's worldview has been shown critically dated, so hopefully Russians can rise against this sort of government eventually. It's very difficult to rise up when your life is threatened by the regime though, but reason and truth tend to find their way through the cracks.

---

I am specially moved because of the parallels to Nazi invasions. Doing nothing proved a grave mistake, not standing up for human rights, giving fascists the benefit of the doubt cost so many lives. I've said "never again" too. It's easy to fact-check the fascist lies in this case.

I suggest any new generations read Anne Frank's diary if you can.

---

Also: don't believe narratives of doom. There's no doom incoming immediately, not from nuclear war (it's been shown it would doom civilization at least), not from climate change (we're in a pathway for significant damage, but it will be decades until it reaches its consequences, and it`s certainly no doom[1]). Doom narratives and hopelessness can create inaction, which is not what we want. Hope is the most powerful weapon for change.

[1] See Kurzgesagt on this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxgMdjyw8uw

⬐ jacquesm

> I suggest any new generations read Anne Frank's diary if you can.

Seconded, in fact I would suggest every read it and re-read it every decade or two or so.

⬐ gnramires

Yes, I wrote much but that was my main message :)

Also, I don't want to come off as a cultural absolutist, I think other countries can have different cultures than standard western; but conquering and imposing culture with violence does not respect basic humanity. Also, we should be able to defend and evolve every culture with peaceful discussion, communication and schooling instead of bombs; and even incorporate other cultures as we see fit (this is a big theme here in Brazil related to our modern art week :) ).

⬐ jacquesm

Ideally, yes. But democratic countries have a fatal flaw that we don't really have a good solution for, democracy can vote itself out of existence to be replaced with fascism and the only way to reset it that we know about is through war. This is a real problem.

I agree that we should be giving a lot more attention to climate change. I don't think it's the only thing we should be talking about, but we should be regularly asking ourselves if there is more that we can do (and there certainly is).

I highly recommend this video from the wonderful Kurzgesagt science video series: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxgMdjyw8uw

Climate change is bad and we need to take it seriously, but there is a lot of reason for hope. A lot of trends are pointing in the right direction and we need to support those trends. Climate policy is still in a bad state, in large part because of the gerontocracy, but younger people are entering politics with a different view.

⬐ WaxedChewbacca

None

⬐ civilized

Great video. I finally have something to show my kids to explain why they have a future.

It baffles me how it's completely normal to avoid any mention of nuclear power when discussing climate change.

Kurzgesagt just did a great video[1] on what we should be hopeful for addressing climate change, but again, absolutely zero mention of nuclear power.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxgMdjyw8uw

⬐ stjohnswarts

Me as well. I almost never hear nuclear advocates poo poo power from solar and wind, all are welcome, but coming from the other side they completely overlook the fact that nuclear power has been working fine for decades, is a 90% fix for climate change and yet they still lose their minds when you bring it up.

Climate change is a scale, from bad to really really bad, and positive change is already happening. Here's some uplifting news in a well articulated video worth watching: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxgMdjyw8uw

Apathy is their weapon, and it's very effective.

⬐ mistermann

They = whom, and how is this weapon wielded?

⬐ Nagyman

Sorry, it's in the video, but the oil/coal producers & related polluters who use the apathy to further limit change that affects their profits.

⬐ None

None

⬐ mistermann

So the apathy is pre-existent, and they leverage this weakness - yes?

⬐ Nav_Panel

> Apathy is their weapon, and it's very effective.

Psychologically speaking, these tactics are approximately the same as the church's use of hell, in the sense of "fix your shit now, or else you're going to hell". This was very effective when the church held a huge amount of political sway + serious control over the media (no internet back then, people weren't even literate). It wont work nearly as well now.

Don't get me wrong--I'm no Homo Economicus fan, not saying people are fundamentally selfish--I just think people are fundamentally averse to change, to breaking their habits. The climate change leadership needs a new tactic. I'm totally in support of e.g. tax cuts and incentives for renewables, reducing carbon emissions, etc. Or other ways of raising awareness and taking action that give people what they want/need, right now, rather than being entirely concerned with an image of the future (that for many people with no families, no kids, no legacy, doesn't even exist).