HN Theater @HNTheaterMonth

> Joe also likes to deflect ...

I think there's some truth to what he says here. For some topics he actually just does let people talk. And that's fine. But there are some topics where Joe isn't just "asking questions" but is actively pushing a particular viewpoint.

The first and most obvious one is vaccines. Covid has broken this man's brain. If you go back to March 2020, his interview with Michael Osterholm [1] was actually really good. It was one of the first I saw that recognized how serious this actually was. But for whatever reasons, Joe has decided vaccines are bad and he's had a parade of grifters and charlatans on to back up that view (eg Robert Malone). There is absolutely no evidence in the world that will change his mind.

The second is all his manosphere [2] content. He really rode the wave of popularity of Jordan Peterson in particular and really gave him a platform with no pushback whatsoever. The recent rise of Andrew Tate is just the latest manifestation of this (fun fact: Tate dated JP's daughter a couple of years ago).

The third is transgender people. Trans people broke a lot of people in a way that's reminiscent of 1990s era homophobia. Bill Maher is another example of this.

So a big part of Joe's popularity isn't just a "dumb guy asking questions", it's that he pushes very normative and popular opinions.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manosphere

⬐ remote_phone

You’re wrong on many levels.

Joe Rogan as recently as last week said the vaccine is mostly safe and saved millions of lives. What he says is that the vaccine is more dangerous to some people than the narratives and pharmaceutical companies says. And he despises how you can’t even talk about the negative effects for some people without being cast as an anti-vaxxer. You entirely proved his point.

The exact same thing applies to transgender people. He believes 100% in their ability to be treated as the gender they believe they are. But his main disagreement is pretending that it’s okay that biological males vs biological females is fair. It’s not, especially in sports like MMA which he is an expert in.

Yet by talking about it, he is cast as a transphobe just like you accused him of.

And to correct you further, the 90s were the period where gay rights went mainstream so you’re even wrong about that. That when people started understanding that it wasn’t a choice and was biological. Shows like Dawson’s Creek really humanized being gay for an entire generation. That’s when Canada made gay marriage legal.

⬐ hindsightbias

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_of_Marriage_Act

Passed the House on July 12, 1996 (342–67) Passed the Senate on September 10, 1996 (85–14)

What happened later is remarkable, but it wasn't even close in 1996.

⬐ remote_phone

That in response to the growing pro gay rights movement.

⬐ jmyeet

> Joe Rogan as recently as last week said the vaccine is mostly safe

- "How Joe Rogan Became a Cheerleader for Ivermectin" [1]

- "Fact-Checking Joe Rogan’s Interview With Robert Malone That Caused an Uproar" [2]

- "What the Joe Rogan podcast controversy says about the online misinformation ecosystem" [3]

> But his main disagreement is pretending that it’s okay that biological males vs biological females is fair.

Sports isn't fair, period. It's why there's no "under 6 foot" NBA league. It's only with trans people that people suddenly (pretend to) care.

> And to correct you further, the 90s were the period where gay rights went mainstream

- "ABC shelves Ellen" (1998) [4]

- "Why Laura Dern Didn't Work For A Year, Despite Jurassic Park's Success" [5]

- "How ‘homophobia’ denied Sharon Bottoms custody of her son in the 1990s" [6]

Examples here are legion. Homophobia permeated popular culture (eg TV and box office movies). There was progress made, sure, but homophobia was so normalized at the time. I have to wonder if you lived through this era (as I did) or just read about it.

I mean, homophobia was still weaponized into the 2000s. Many credit Karl Rove with weaponizing state ballot measures on gay marriage to win the 2004 presidential election [7].

> Dawson’s Creek

technically the coming out storyline was 1999-2000 I believe and was controversial. Roseanne [8] is probably a better example. Picket Fences ended up censoring a kiss scene in 1993 [9] and caused quite a lot of controversy at the time.

[1]: https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/joe-ro...

[2]: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/08/arts/music/fact-check-joe...

[3]: https://www.npr.org/2022/01/21/1074442185/joe-rogan-doctor-c...

[4]: https://money.cnn.com/1998/04/24/bizbuzz/ellen/

[5]: https://www.cinemablend.com/news/2485962/why-laura-dern-didn...

[6]: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-homophobia-denied-shar...

[7]: https://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=230634&page=1

[8]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%27t_Ask,_Don%27t_Tell_(Ros...

[9]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sugar_%26_Spice_(Picket_Fences...

⬐ remote_phone

Nothing you posted contradicts what I said. Questioning the vaccine doesn’t mean that he didn’t think it was safe for most people. He even almost got the vaccine if not for a scheduling conflict.

When I said “mainstream” I didn’t mean they were generally accepted. I meant that the issue of gay rights became a topic. Some places like Canada openly legalized gay marriage without much of a protest. Gay rights infection point was definitely in the 90s and only got stronger. It wasn’t like the 80s where gays were openly mocked like in Three’s Company

⬐ UncleMeat

He described Fallon Fox as "a man in a dress." Rogan's statements about transwomen are considerably broader than "I just want to talk about the impact on sporting regulations."

Michael Osterholm talks a bit on this in March and how hand washing is somewhat pointless -

https://youtu.be/E3URhJx0NSw?t=2634

You can talk about hand washing stopping other diseases etc but by ignoring how C19 is about breathing why would you expect people to suddenly believe masks matter.

Even pushing outdoor dining and activities, if we are taught it's contact, once again people won't respond.

⬐ touristtam

The article isn't about that, it's about focusing on surface cleaning and offering a false sense of security, while taking resources and time from other activities as the previous studies haven't been forward in regards to the dose of pathogen used in said studies; there is no evidence showing an increase of virus transmission through surface touching in the real world.

Now you should still wash your hands with soap.

⬐ rurban

Hand washing is not really pointless at all. It prevents the surface - eye transmission, which has a likelyhood of about 5% of all such infections. Even with only once confirmed case so far, the one in Singapore.

What is pointless is excessive surface cleaning, which could be prevented by simply hand washing, or not touching your eyes.

That is pretty much correct from what I’ve read.

But take care to differentiate between surgical masks (only help protect others), and N95 protects both ways (protects the wearer from others, protects others from the wearer).

Go to 43:20 on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw and Michael Osterholm (a very clued up epidemiologist) says:

1. Surgical masks help prevent transmission

2. N95 masks help prevent catching it

Note also in that same section he says washing hands is probably a waste of time - because transmission vector is respiratory (duhhh). I think too much of our media and fear is concentrating hard on washing hands, with little science behind it for respitory viruses.

Michael Osterholm called this out during his episode on the Joe Rogan podcast back on 3/10, presumably from prior research - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw&t=1180

⬐ dna_polymerase

"The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the reemergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored."

https://cmr.asm.org/content/20/4/660.abstract

There is a very succinct explanation by Michael Osterholm [1][2] where he says that the virus is spread both by droplets & aerosols, and that sharing the same air with another person is the primary vector (that isn't intended to sound as alarmist as it probably does).

From what I understand the best prevention is to reduce face-to-face contact with other people where possible, but an N95 mask would definitely help prevent contraction in public spaces.

Of course, these measures seem extreme since ~80% of people will barely notice they are infected / have mild symptoms, but it's all about peak-load reduction.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1xBiBVH7U4 [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw&t=7s

This was very helpful to me: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. Look for his book "Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs" for more info. https://amzn.to/2IAzeLe http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/

⬐ keiferski

This seems pretty legitimate, thanks!

No, not even close. Those wet markets are a fucking nightmare. There are truly optimized for pulling new diseases into the human population. Thousands of animals, hundreds of different species, many known to be reservoirs of potential human pathogens, crammed together in close proximity with each other and with humans who eat them.

In his interview with Joe Rogan, Michael Osterholm called it "the perfect experiment that no university would let you do":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

Their discussion of wet markets starts at around 1:01:00.

⬐ jacquesm

You are missing the point of my comment. A bat infecting a pig or some other two step is a pre-cursor to many Zoonotic events. Those wet markets are indeed a huge accelerator. But the pre-conditions exist in many places and all it takes is one butcher that isn't paying attention and you've got the ball rolling.

Africa and Asia have a lot of this and so are a recurring theme in these very unfortunate stories. But it could happen here, and viruses really don't care about location.

Wet markets and bushmeat is how we got SARS and HIV. We're not sure if COVID-19 was really transferred that way, maybe we'll never know. The Swine flu also jumped species in a regular farm. So there are lots of opportunities all over the world, some more dangerous than others.

⬐ nate_meurer

What you're saying doesn't make any sense. You said, "A bat infecting a pig could easily happen in Italy". How is a careless Italian butcher in any way comparable to a seething, filthy wet market where live pigs and bats are crammed into stacked cages? How much bat do you think they eat in Italy? Do Dutch butchers serve bat or pangolin or dog meat, or keep wild birds in cages on top of ferrets, which are good animal models for human influenza infections?

As a vegetarian, I'll happily acknowledge the barbarity and health hazards of factory meat production in the Western world. But this really is a tortured apples-to-oranges thing you're doing here. There is simply no valid comparison between a European meat grocer and a Chinese wet market, and I think you know it.

⬐ jacquesm

The world is a lot larger than Europe, and there are documented cases of Zoonosis from all over the planet (in fact, a good 2/3rds or so of our pathogens are of Zoonotic origin). Also, this particular virus likely did not cross over in a wet market, there is no evidence for that.

As for how much better the EU is:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_Europe

Is a good example of what can happen here.

⬐ nate_meurer

Again, you said "A bat infecting a pig could easily happen in Italy". I'm calling bullshit on that. I know it's just a silly example, but the risk of a virus hopping from a bat to a pig in Italy (again, how many bats do Italians eat?) is not comparable to a Chinese wet market, where beasts of all kinds, their waste, and products of butchery are intimately mixed every day.

> Also, this particular virus likely did not cross over in a wet market, there is no evidence for that.

If you're relying on a lack of absolute physical proof to support your argument, then I guess you win. Otherwise, there absolutely is evidence that this virus jumped from an animal reservoir local to Hubei, and that the wet markets are perfectly designed to facilitate that process. You're being a bit slippery on this point, but it really isn't the least bit controversial among virologists or epidemiologists.

American-style factory farming of cattle, swine, and poultry, where uncountable animals are crammed together and kept alive with antibiotics, is maybe a valid comparison. America is creating it's own epidemic of antibiotic resistance with the help of these farms (and so is China for that matter). But that does not -- or at least logically should not -- assuage anyone's discomfort with the health hazards of wet markets.

⬐ sk5t

> one butcher that isn't paying attention

What are you suggesting exactly--that a slightly inattentive butcher wouldn't notice the difference between a leg of pork and a bat?

⬐ jacquesm

No, that there is a typical one-two step to a Zoonotic event where the jump from a reservoir animal to an animal that is regularly consumed is made.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_reservoir

For plenty of these events we do not know the reservoir animal (yet). So that butcher will know they are butchering a pig, not a bat. But that pig may have become infected and if the butcher isn't very careful he may infect himself and if the meat isn't prepared carefully it may infect those that consume it. And by the time we realize it has happened these important bits of data may have already been lost.

There is a very good book on the theme called 'Spillover', highly recommended and so far it seems to have been exactly on the money with how this whole thing unfolds. Uncanny actually, it is like having the spoiler for a movie that wasn't made yet.

⬐ bitL

Bushmeat gave us Ebola as well. Deer hunting might give us CWD soon (we observed transmission to human-model mice already) and that one is basically disinfectable only by using high heat and pressure together.

⬐ jacquesm

Bushmeat gives Ebola over-and-over again. It has crossed the species barrier many times already.

And let's not forget about diseases like these: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_spongiform_encephalopat...

Even though they do not involve viruses they are still part of a similar kind of interplay between species.

I would love to see you link/source.

I have watched https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw&t=2357s with Michael Osterholm as guest. This is not a flat out lie.

⬐ ggffryuuj

I saw that too. He isn’t a virologist and also is hawking his book. And he’s not very articulate or dispassionate. And he still hasn’t contradicted me in any way. Not unambiguously.

⬐ reilly3000

This is a fantastic episode. It was engaging throughout. I cannot recommend it enough.

⬐ yhoneycomb

But have you tried DMT

⬐ testerino11111

you should start a podcast

So I encourage people to go watch the Joe Rogan podcast on this [1]. A few snippets:

- He describes this as more like a "winter" than a "blizzard" in that this is going to go on for months;

- No one really knows what the mortality rate is but it's become clear there are certain risk factors eg the fatality rate among people over 70 in China is about 3x for men than women but men are much more likely to smoke than women in China in this age group.

- Keeping schools closed is a mixed bag. For one, kids below 9 or so don't seem to get sick or die. In China only 2% of cases are under age 19. There are other diseases like this (eg Hepatitis-A). If you keep kids home, some people will lose their jobs or simply be unable to work as they take care of those children. Some of those people will be health care professionals. The lack of those will likely kill people;

- It's unclear yet what other risk factors (other than age and smoking) there are. Obesity in the developed world is a big cause for concern as this unfolds. A stat quoted is that 45% of people in the US aged 45 and older are obese or severely obese;

- It's largely a question of when not if you'll get this;

- It's a myth that we'll have a vaccine before ~18 months. You can't rush this. It's like trying to rush a pregnancy.

- Italy is a window to how most places will be in ~3 weeks;

- We, as a society, have a short attention span. We could've developed a vaccine for coronaviruses after previous outbreaks (SARS/MERS) but there seemed to be no appetite for that when they faded;

- Disruptions to the supply chain are likely to be the biggest problem. We don't stockpile anything and we're dependent on China for a lot of medical equipment (eg respirators) and a bunch of essential medicines, some of which people will die if they don't receive.

The guest here (Michael Osterholm) is an expert on infectious diseases and the author of Deadliest Enemies [2].

I can't speak to the reaction of different governments. It's no surprise there's variance. This probably comes down to just 1 or 2 personalities.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

[2]: https://www.amazon.com/Deadliest-Enemy-Against-Killer-Germs-...

Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota said as much on JRE yesterday.[1]

Obviously touching your face won't decrease your chances of catching coronavirus (or any other disease), but the reason this strain is wrecking so much havoc is because of how transmissible it is, especially through simple breathing. The implication being, if you get it on your hands, you've almost certainly already breathed it in.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

Yes. The Joe Rogan experience episode with Michael Osterholm talked about this. Basically all of this social distancing is about slowing the spread so as to not overwhelm the healthcare system, not stop it. They can calculate how much you impact the speed of spread if you limit gatherings to 1k, 100, 50, 5, etc. From there it's a somewhat subjective risk assessment of what you want to recommend, bearing in mind that destroying the economy results in deaths from downstream effects.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

Dr. Michael Osterholm was on Joe Rogan's podcast explaining in detail how this virus spreads [1]

- Washing hands and not touching face is inconclusive but it makes sense to keep up the hygiene. That's not the primary means of how this virus spreads.

- Virus primarily spreads via airborne means, simply by breathing (not even coughing or sneezing) is enough. It stays suspended in air (you can imagine the negligible weight of a 0.1um particle compared to the fluid mechanical forces from circulating air).

- N95 masks (contrarily to the popular myth) are the most effective means of stopping the spread. Shortage of masks for hospital workers is an orthogonal issue.

I urge everyone of you to watch this interview and to be more informed.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

According to cdc expert, kids up to 19 mostly don't get sick, or if they do, it's not as bad as in adults over 40

https://youtu.be/E3URhJx0NSw

⬐ undreren

Everyone is possibly a transmitter. We are protecting the old and weak, not the young and healthy.

⬐ nikolay

We know so little now that it's better to be safe than sorry! We're talking about millions of lives!

⬐ cortesoft

They still get infected, so they can still pass it on to others.

Source : https://youtu.be/E3URhJx0NSw

⬐ boonez123

Nice to listen to a highly educated individual talk about their thoughts on this virus. A little too much Lyme disease. Overview: expect to live in this sort of environment for between 3 to 6 months. Vaccine is years away. Kids are carriers with no symptoms. Transmits via sharing air. Viral load is high prior to showing symptoms. Get lots of sleep, to keep immune system strong.

⬐ themantra514

Thank you for the great overview!