HN Theater @HNTheaterMonth

⬐ erwinh

Just dropping this here for people interested in seeing what the current constellation looks like in orbit: https://space-search.io/?search=starlink

⬐ inglor_cz

That is an interesting view and while the total # of satellites is impressive already, the fact that there is just 10 of them over the EU right now indicates how much more dense the network must be in order to really operate.

⬐ cdash

Another view showing the coverage of each satellite can also be found here.

https://satellitemap.space/

⬐ erwinh

Yeah that one has a pretty cool projection as well to give an indication of coverage!

⬐ antattack

Launches are becoming a routine...and it's getting boring (in a good way). IMO, SpaceX should change their format to ASMR experience. Have some unknown artist provide background score, narrator provide upbeat yet monotonic commentary, mixed in with engine/structure sounds and mission control updates.

Contrats to SpaceX.

⬐ sit_i_piz

Would love to see a Grimes featuring SpaceX launch album

⬐ rmoriz

Test Shot Starfish is great ASMR with occasional mission audio breaks

⬐ Darmody

You wouldn't imagine how I felt the first time I saw the satellites.

It was like a year ago. I take my dog for walks on a path between orange tree fields, so at night is pretty dark. I look at the sky and I see this thing moving and I think, maybe it's a plane but it doesn't have any blinking light. It's not a planet/star because it's moving. Is it an alien? Nevermin, it's probably a plane.

I keep walking and I look up again. Now I see like 3 or 4 of them. One after another with the same space between them. And as they move, another one appears. And then another one, and another one.

I saw a total of two dozens or so. As soon I got some I told it to a friend who didn't know what it was either. I googled it and the next day I found a video in a news website where they asked about some "dots" that were seen above Barcelona which is not very far away from where I am. Someone commented that it was the Starlink satellites. I checked it out and yes, that was it and everything made sense but holy crap, at the beginning it was intense.

⬐ samvher

This part really bothers me. The connectivity benefits are clear but there is not going to be any place on earth (well, maybe the poles?) anymore where you can see a night sky with no noticeable satellites or airplanes. I really think that’s a significant loss and this decision is not made in a democratic way.

Frustratingly, I do see myself paying for the service at some point as, like many people in this thread, I have a desire to work remotely in a rural location. (By that time it’s not like this can be undone...)

⬐ Obi_Juan_Kenobi

They are only visible while transitioning to their operating orbit.

They will have an effect on astronomy, but not visual observation.

⬐ samvher

I was actually not aware of that, that makes a big difference. Is that also true for (very) dark skies?

Edit: this article does not make it sound like the problem is solved, is it wrong? https://earthsky.org/human-world/will-spacex-starlink-satell...

⬐ Rebelgecko

Keep in mind that due to the size of the constellation and estimated lifetime of the individual satellites, there will eventually always be dozens of satellites that are transitioning to their operating orbit.

⬐ Ajedi32

I got a chance to see one of the satellite trains shortly after launch, when they had barely had a chance to spread out. It looked like a continuous line of light slowly moving across a section of the sky; really an amazing sight.

Unfortunately I live in an area with a decent amount of light pollution, and haven't been able to catch a glimpse of any of the more recent trains. (Might have something to do with the dark coating they're putting on the newer satellites to reduce reflectivity.)

For those who want to give it a try, this site gives a list of optimal viewing times, complete with an animation of where and when the satellites will appear in the sky at your location: https://james.darpinian.com/satellites/?special=starlink

⬐ spuz

Along with this being a record 8th flight for a first stage booster, it's also the fastest time a booster has been turned around for reuse (38 days compared with 51 previously):

https://everydayastronaut.com/starlink-16/

⬐ kawfey

I watched it this morning with the same kind of enthusiasm that i might have for the morning weather; seeing Falcon 9 land is just normal, even though they exceeded their landing envelope by landing in high winds.

⬐ gameswithgo

8th landing, record winds on landing, and a used fairing!

⬐ Isamu

Is this setting a record for booster reuse for SpaceX? I didn’t see the commentary.

Elon claimed that the insurance costs decline with reuse and they have the lowest insurance rates in the industry.

⬐ gameswithgo

yeah 8th landing new record

⬐ bumby

Is the lower cost of insurance an artifact of the depreciated value of the booster?

⬐ toomuchtodo

Flight proven record. More launches without rapid unscheduled disassembly, more trust in the vehicle's worthiness.

⬐ Obi_Juan_Kenobi

Payload cost >>>>>> vehicle cost, in almost all instances.

This is the actuaries factoring in what they see as less risk.

⬐ 1958325146

Just to clarify: this is about insurance for the payload, not the booster. So, the insurance costs only depend on how likely the insurance company thinks it is for the satellite to be blown up and how much the satellite costs, not how much the launch costs.

⬐ bumby

Thanks for clarifying.

That’s interesting because I would assume a reused structure (rather then reused design) would be at greater risk for failure. More fatigue cycles etc.

I believe in the case of govt payloads they are self insured to around 80% or so but that’s obviously a different case. I also wonder if that affects the business plan for how to decide which payloads go on which rocket

⬐ nickik

Well, when you get in a plane, would you rather it be the first or the 100s?

There is basically a curve from where its more risk in the early launches and then gets better, as it nears end of live, risk goes up again.

⬐ bumby

Depends on what you mean.

I’d like to be at or near the first flight of a new plane using a time-tested design.

Failure rates (more specifically hazard rates) in most components tend to increase with time (I.e., follow a time-dependent failure model like a Weibull distribution and not a constant rate model). The “bathtub” curve is usually more associated with components with a constant failure rate (where the ideal place is after infant mortality but before wear out).

There are two types of uncertainties here and I think we’re talking about different ones. One is a design uncertainty that can be mitigated using a well-used and understood design. The other is a component failure uncertainty which increases as service life increases. So the ideal place to be is in a well-vetted design with new-ish components.

⬐ nickik

I not arguing about design uncertainty, rather production uncertainty. A failure in the production is more likely to fail on the first flight then the 3rd.

⬐ bumby

I don’t think reliability theory, particularly in aerospace, supports this claim unless the quality control is lacking. To be fair, SpaceX has had quality issues in the past but they seem to learn quickly from it.

To reiterate, the hazard rate tends to increase with service life. So as components age, there is an increased risk of failure.

⬐ cowmix

Boring! :)

⬐ simonh

Mission accomplished then ;)

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/elon-musk-wants-bore-you-201...

⬐ TeMPOraL

Landing a rocket that already flew 7 other times before? A payload fairing that already flew 1.5 times before? Booo-riiing.

Seriously though, it's amazing how SpaceX normalized launch vehicle reusability.

⬐ pixl97

I can't wait till they make second stage landing and reusing boring.

⬐ neuromancer2701

That would mean Starship right? Because the Falcon second stage is never going to land.

What is the over/under for Starship landing regularly? 5 years?

⬐ geerlingguy

Landing intact, or landing like the last starship model just did a few weeks ago?

⬐ codecamper

meanwhile 80% of our rainforests are gone. Good luck finding rainforests on Mars.

⬐ Gabriel_Martin

starlink could be a tool for fighting this though?

⬐ codecamper

Sorry I offended the Elon cult.

All bow down to the fat man with moobs who promises everything & becomes the world's richest man all without making a profit.

⬐ ctdonath

Starlink is a brilliant move: a profitable excuse for lots of launches, each paying for itself, to deliver lots of satellites per launch, with each cheap enough so if one or many are lost it’s no big deal, and if it works the resulting constellation will hugely disrupt the telecom and real estate industries, all while proving reusability which no customer wants to be lead in exploring.

⬐ hyperpallium2

Cheap, fast internet for rural US could also unite America.

⬐ niel

> the resulting constellation will hugely disrupt the telecom and real estate industries

I'm interest to know why you think Starlink would disrupt real estate? Do you think more people will move to rural areas if they had access to high speed internet there?

⬐ dkarp

Internet connection was the main blocker for me to move to a rural/off-grid lifestyle. Everything else is a solved problem. It may anecdotal, but not unreasonable to think others feel the same way. Many real estate websites already list available internet speed and cellular signal, so they must believe it impacts on sales.

⬐ ctdonath

“Off grid” doesn’t have to be very far from company offices. I wanted to buy a place just 90 minutes from my office (which I rarely go to), but zero internet there so no sale. Give me Starlink, and it’s an option - as is remote areas of Wyoming.

⬐ cweagans

I moved to a more rural area. When I was moving in, the local cable company claimed that they could provide service to that house. Once we moved in and scheduled the install, they decided they couldn't do it after all, so we had to go with a WISP. Really not a good experience.

We ended up moving after a year solely because of the internet.

At least for me, Starlink would have been a game changer.

⬐ GeekFortyTwo

Yup, the only reason I live in the rural house that I do is because it got fiber for some reason. Starlink speeds would have been enough(I would be fine with 25meg) too. We actually had as a condition of sale a requirement that sufficient internet was confirmed(I was expecting a challenge on that, turned out nicely). With Starlink I would not have hesitated.

I'm not far from a big city, and closer still to a small town. Property prices in that town have gone insane during the pandemic. People want their own space. With remote work and good internet, any town can see a boom. If this pandemic had happened once Starlink was fully operational, it would have really changed some of those numbers, I think.

⬐ Diederich

Are you me? We moved from paying $4800/month for an apartment in Mountain View, CA to paying about $3100/month mortgage 10 minutes outside of Olympia Washington. Here we are gaining equity on a big, beautiful home on five lush acres.

Early last year, slightly before the pandemic, we decided to make the permanent move out of the SF bay area. In fact, when the pandemic hit in February, we were in Oregon looking at a property.

Prior to that, we were planning on waiting until Starlink became a thing, but decided to push forward without it, with the requirement that the new place have high speed Internet.

We made a big spreadsheet and put almost 500 properties in it. The very first thing was to check its Internet speed. My wife spent...many many hours...on the phone with xfinity and a couple of others, going through addresses.

When we found this place, the first thing we had our on-site agent do was get the wifi password and run a couple of speed tests. We required that prior to even being (remotely) shown around.

We are out in the country here, so there are power and Internet outages, but not too frequent. I did signup for and get a Starlink dish, and it acts as our secondary Internet connection in case comcast is out. It's connected to one of our generator backed up circuits.

From what we've heard over the seven months we've been here, property prices are going up all over Thurston county. The contractors we've had in tell us that there are TONS of people like us, largely from the SF bay area, arriving....people with money they're willing to spend.

⬐ gnarbarian

Yes. Especially with the widespread telecommuting push. Commuting and office space is an incredible drain on the economy. Also when You have the option of working for any company in the country you are much more likely to find a job that really suits you, you find rewarding and interesting. For employers, the talent pool is increased exponentially as well.

It's not all positive though. It really helps to have a dedicated home office.

⬐ briffle

I'm already looking. One of the problems with living 'in the woods' is poor internet connectivity. My job is 100% work from home, so it doesn't matter if I am in SF, or some small town in Colorado.

⬐ Shivetya

quality of life can be so much greater but it does come with the caveat of what you find to improve your life. for me it is the distinct lack of noise and what noise I do hear is of a different quality. followed by less light pollution and overall feeling of calm.

for some the need to feel like they are in the center of everything is the primary requirement and what I see as detracting from the experience is just background noise that they may not even notice.

⬐ ckdarby

> Do you think more people will move to rural areas if they had access to high speed internet there?

Yes. My wife and I started looking at buying land in mid-2020 and saw a handful of plots we were interested in. What stopped us from committing to buying one was internet service because we're both remote workers who require at least 50/10 mbit for both of us to be working without issue.

In the present it is fairly straightforward to get around no power, no water and no sewages with solar, well and septic system. If you don't have internet service though there's not much you can do to get around that.

Starlink has changed that. I suspect we'll also see an uprise in prefabricated homes as well. I want to live further out to escape the city, have a family garden, and a couple chickens but I don't want to have to build our home by hand.

⬐ krastanov

I wonder what your take is on how well this would work for people who want children in their families. Wouldn't access to kindergartens and schools and simply to other kids be an issue?

⬐ ckdarby

Wife(30) and I(29) have some ways to go before starting a family probably at least 4 years.

Here is some content as not everyone has the opportunity to do this.

I work in software and she's transitioning into software as well. We could live a above comfortable lifestyle on my salary or a comfortable lifestyle on her salary.

The plan has been to build up our investment portfolio where yields cover the minimum to survive by the age of 35. This is to reduce the risk relying of the bulk of income coming from a single source.

At that point in time I'd consider looking for part time, freelance or consulting to be able to transition my primary focus into our family but also to reduce the chance of dipping into the yields from the portfolio.

With the freed up time I would homeschool and bring the children to activities for social interaction.

I don't think this environment would negatively impact them.

⬐ adventured

Depends on where you go of course. I grew up in the middle of nowhere US, very low population density (huge county, less than 50,000 people total), and went to excellent public schools that had astoundingly good teachers that routinely scored high marks in comparison to their best peers in the state. The county and school system didn't have much in terms of money to waste (they did somehow find the money for a computer lab with a few dozen systems circa 1987, enough for each student while a given class was using the lab; probably a state grant). A lot of money wasn't necessary for a great education (which is a mistake the US education system has been making for decades now: just throw more money at it). I wish I had appreciated then how good the teachers were, I just kind of assumed most kids had access to nice public schools (we were poor and we had access to it, why wouldn't everyone).

I'd choose that rural public school experience every time over public schools in all US cities. It was safe (a school shooting was unthinkable), zero gang or weapon problems, the focus was always on education, classes were never too crowded (easy to get individual attention from a teacher as needed), and the teachers were great overall (90% older women with decades of experience). Toward the end of my years in that public school system, drug use did begin to infest rural American schools and you could see that was about to get a lot worse. The US has changed a lot in the past 30 years, I suspect my experience is becoming increasingly rare, but there are likely still a lot of nice rural areas (it's a huge country after all).