HN Theater @HNTheaterMonth

> The ESA's Ariane 5 (predecessor of the VEGA rocket) had a very checkered history.

Ariane 5 is not the predecessor of Vega. They are two very different project, for different payloads. And look at the table of success and failure rate of the Ariane 5 itself http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arianne_5

> SpaceX has had an amazing run in comparison to most other platforms.

Clearly that's not the case.

> I think you'll find that political reasons are keeping NASA from buying more launches from SpaceX.

From that interview: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/tesla-and-spacex-elon-musks-indu...

Elon Musk: NASA called and told us that we'd won a $1.5 billion contract. And I couldn't even hold the phone, I just blurted out, "I love you guys."

Scott Pelley: They saved you.

Elon Musk: Yeah, they did.

⬐ rpedela

In that context, NASA was the customer. They didn't bail them out. It wasn't charity.

⬐ zizee

> Ariane 5 is not the predecessor of Vega.

I stand corrected. The point is that the ESA's rocket program is far from flawless as your "3 from 3" post above suggests.

>> SpaceX has had an amazing run in comparison to most other platforms.

> Clearly that's not the case.

From the article, this was a TEST flight. Exploding rockets is an expected part of the development process.

⬐ brianstorms

The most remarkable thing about the 60 Minutes segment was the simplification of Tesla Motors' history, and Elon's apparent unwillingness to correct the record in front of the camera. Elon was not the founder of Tesla. He was an angel investor, and then became a major investor, and over time took over after ousting the early founders. That is a very different story than he founded the company, that it was his singular vision, blah blah blah.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of Tesla Motors and a believer in the vision and how Tesla's going about achieving sustainable transport for the world. But I am also a huge fan of accuracy, and having founded some startups and co-founded some startups and worked for a bunch of startups that I did not found or co-found, I try hard to get the story right and not give people the impression that it was all me. I wish Elon didn't do that. I wish he insisted 60 Minutes get the story right, even if not convenient. I don't like a manufactured story, especially when it's supposed to be nonfiction television journalism.

⬐ etjossem

Elon Musk has made a deliberate attempt to simplify a founding story before, when he was leaving Paypal. In Musk's separation agreement with the company [1], there's a section marked "Deletion of References to Founders." In light of (what looks like) Musk rewriting history with his previous company too, I'm not sure 60 Minutes is to blame.

"[Paypal] acknowledges that Mr. Musk is a founder of the Company and its predecessor X.com. The Company agrees that, within ten days after the effective date of this Agreement, all references to 'founders' of the company will be removed from the Company's website ... the Company shall refrain from stating who the founders of the Company are or making statements quoted in the press that undermine Mr. Musk's status as a 'founder' of X.com."

I love what he's done for Tesla since taking over. There's real potential in the products the company has to offer, and I own a bit of TSLA myself. But at this point, Elon Musk doesn't need a "lone hero" story to change the world, and I'm not sure I agree with the decision to craft it.

[1] http://evworld.com/pdf/eberhardvmusk.pdf, scroll to p.42

⬐ caio1982

I, for one, welcome Elon Musk's empire! He couldn't possibly be paying for all the hype, all the influence, backing a worldwide PR campaign about himself and his stunts. He's on the media simply because he's freaking awesome compared to other millionaires industrialists. Come on, look at what the guy has done so far... we need more Elons Musks. There, end of fanboyism :-)

⬐ camillomiller

When Steve Jobs died they said that a long time would pass since we'd have another Steve. Well, I think they were wrong. We have some great Jobs-like guy right here... One that's easy to root for and that really shares some traits with Steve Jobs. Now excuse me while I'll go buy some Tesla shares out of pure Muskboism.

⬐ None

None

⬐ WalterBright

I bought some TSLA this morning.

Full Disclosure: every time I buy a stock, it subsequently takes a dive.

⬐ darkmighty

Also, it's clear that all he did wouldn't be possible without a superb team behind him. But he's got such a strong character that it's just a talent magnet -- if not more, probably the best motivator one institution could ever hope, specially for engineers.

I think he's aware and quite pleased at all this image building as a "RL Iron Man", because it does wonders for the success of the companies. It's this kind of spirit that made apple's success, not the salary of the engineers.

Salary paid in dreams.

⬐ eli_gottlieb

Actually, the film's portrayal of Iron Man/Tony Stark was based on Elon Musk.

So yeah.

⬐ nyrina

I really doubt that, as Iron Man is a comic character from the start of 1960 or so.

⬐ caio1982

http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,288...

⬐ stackcollision

The Tony Stark from the comics is very different from the one in the movies. He specifically said the "films' portrayal".

⬐ jkaunisv1

Except that he said the film's portrayal, not the character itself

⬐ None

None

⬐ maxgaudin

Elon is actually in Iron Man 2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuG2AVFB-g0

⬐ base698

http://www.mnn.com/lifestyle/arts-culture/stories/tesla-ceo-...

Director Jon Favreau says Musk was the perfect man to study for his fictional billionaire superhero.

⬐ cushychicken

>Salary paid in dreams.

That's something that would look great in a marble facade.

⬐ dclowd9901

Yes, I'd rather stare at a pretty marvel façade than put my kids through college, too.

I'm all about sweat equity, but that payoff better be substantial.

⬐ toomuchtodo

Counterpoint: I keep applying for a Linux sysadmin job at SpaceX that would have me taking a ~$80K/year paycut, so I can work at SpaceX.

Substantial payoff? Mine is getting to work in launch operations, no matter what the position is.

⬐ dclowd9901

Just remember there's lots of people you're robbing of an opportunity because you're selfish enough to value your time so little.

⬐ toomuchtodo

> because you're selfish enough to value your time so little.

You're considering money the only value of my time. Happiness > $$$ after a certain point.

I can make $100K-200K/year running infrastructure to serve ads better, or do something that actually matters (going to Mars). How I spend my experience is up to me.

⬐ aryastark

I have yet to hear anyone speak positively about their experience working at SpaceX. The common theme seems to be incredibly high turnover with intense burnout. However, looking at Glassdoor right now, it seems things may have improved. Or there has been a lot of recent astroturfing going on. The reviews were pretty negative last I looked, a year or two ago.

⬐ toomuchtodo

Yep, I know. I check their Glassdoor reviews every few weeks. I didn't expect it to be an easy-going place.

I've worked at far more grueling places (Citadel).

⬐ pedalpete

I'm only half way through, but so far, I find it very disappointing that CBS has not given credit to anybody else who Musk has worked with.

They discuss "you decided to start a car company", but it was started by two other engineers, and Musk came in as an investor first, and joined the company later. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Motors It would have been nice to see Musk give some credit to the original visionaries. He's still very responsible for Tesla's success, but it wasn't JUST him.

Same with PayPal, it would have been nice for Musk to say "I stared PayPal with a few friends to..."

This report sadly gives nobody else any credit in the development of this empire.

⬐ tbolse

Musk bought himself into the game. There is actually some more dirty little secrets to the whole story. It looks like Musk bought himself in and then overtook the whole company. In 2009 after Eberhard (real founder and CEO) was kicked out, he filed a lawsuite against Musk - it got settled for god knows how many dollars.

Here is the full complaint: http://evworld.com/pdf/eberhardvmusk.pdf

⬐ sfjailbird

The way Eberhard was treated was disgusting.

⬐ BHSPitMonkey

Is he not within his rights to buy a company and lead it to success?

⬐ sixQuarks

Well, my memory isn't perfect, but didn't Musk try to let some other guy run Tesla, only to see it nearly driven into bankruptcy? It wasn't until Musk came back as CEO that it turned around, and is now worth over $20 billion. Of course there are countless talented people behind the product, but like great athletes, if they don't have a great coach, they won't win a lot of games. Musk just happens to be the greatest coach we've seen in generations.

⬐ colordrops

That is true, but when the reporter asked at the end "what is it about YOU that seems to invite skepticism", he replied with "I think it's because WE'RE doing things that are unlikely to succeed". At least Elon is speaking from the frame of the team and not from his ego, even if the media is not.

⬐ simonh

Fair enough to a point, but was chairman of the board from seven months after it's founding and personally lead the design of the first car, the roadster, and even won two design awards at the time. He's absolutely earned the accolades he's got for his work there.

⬐ ekianjo

> This report sadly gives nobody else any credit in the development of this empire.

Sounds like someone who was very popular in Cupertino, too.

⬐ carlosdp

To be fair, having a single face of the company being enforced constantly is probably an intentional PR decision. And it is quite effective from my perspective.

⬐ markvdb

It's also a self reinforcing loop. In other words, even if Musk would _try_ to give credit to the team, much of that would be ignored in the reporting about Tesla/SpaceX/...

⬐ pedalpete

That's an interesting perspective, I hadn't thought of it that way. My concern is that it feeds into the idea that these guys do it all on their own, but then speak to any VC, and they talk about the team.

⬐ bane

He doesn't so much as say it, but show it in his eyes how much the NASA contract meant and how much passion he has.

⬐ markdown

I saw this when he teared up in the 60 minute interview last year when talking about how crushed he was that his childhood heroes (Neil Armstrong et al) attacked him and his company (wasn't personal, they just thought space exploration should be the sole domain of NASA, and not corporations)

⬐ bane

Yeah, I remember that now. This is something deep inside him. I suspect it's inside lots of people of this age, growing up in the vapors of the end of the space age. He may feel a deep responsibility for making this happen now that he had the chance.

⬐ kome

Public money saved him.

⬐ melling

Well, you didn't think his clients were going to be your average HN reader, who won't spend money to buy expensive developer tools or who daily ask how to get around a paywall because they believe everything should be free?

A few large companies and governments were his obvious targets. Just like large defense contractors exist on "public" money.

⬐ kome

> A few large companies and governments were his obvious targets. Just like large defense contractors exist on "public" money.

Exactly. The military-industrial complex lives mostly on public money.

⬐ melling

"Exactly. The military-industrial complex lives mostly on public money."

That's what I said. Is there some other point that you're trying to make? Getting a government contract isn't taking donations. You deliver a service or a product and you get paid for it. The US government spends a lot of money. Cray Supercomputer sold systems to the government too, for example. I imagine that if Elon wants to build his electric jet someday, one of his best business planes would be to build electric jet drones for the US government.

⬐ kome

There were cheaper alternatives, especially for light rockets (Soyuz, Dnepr, PSLV, Vega, etc). Financing him has been a political choice.

⬐ melling

How much cheaper? We already have a small problem with Russian being the only way to get US astronauts into space. The privatization of space has been discussed for decades. Spending money on private companies is the logical choice. Jeff Bezos also got a small amount of Nasa funding. I would imagine that his company will also get future contracts.

Sorry if you don't agree with the decision but at this point we're just debating politics.

⬐ madsushi

Good, I am glad that some of my taxpayer dollars went to something that is changing the world.

⬐ prawn

He saved the public money.

⬐ adventured

There are two sides to that coin.

Without an opportunity and potential like SpaceX, all the public money would have are cases like Solyndra.

The reality was, NASA needed SpaceX as much as SpaceX needed NASA.

⬐ jasonlingx

NASA needed Musk. Musk doesn't need anybody.

⬐ bsilvereagle

Did you watch the news clip? And the Department of Energy (not mentioned) was huge in getting Tesla to where it is today.

⬐ rayiner

That's ridiculous. There are tons of successful developments using public money besides SpaceX.

⬐ adventured

Yes, and my "like" in the "like SpaceX" was meant to acknowledge that fact. Thus, not ridiculous at all.

⬐ InclinedPlane

Public money allowed his company to develop faster than it did, but even with only non-governmental commercial contracts SpaceX still would have developed along the same lines, just much slower for a while.

⬐ zacharypinter

Kudos all around! To those within the government with the foresight to bet on Musk (or those like him) and to Musk for actually pulling off something great with the opportunity.

⬐ snowwindwaves

I would prefer the government stay out of the business of picking winners

⬐ emersonrsantos

Public money doesn't save incompetent people: read about Eike Batista from Brazil who had a net worth of 30 billion dollars in 2012 and now has a negative net worth (reported by Bloomberg in January 2014).

⬐ kelvin0

Are you channeling Ayn Rand?

⬐ kelvin0

I like the gray tone, it highlights my mustache.

⬐ cromwellian

And that means what? Public money has saved a lot of companies. The next time you fly somewhere, thank defense contracts and US postal service contracts for subsidizing the development of commercial air travel.

Aerospace, especially space, is tightly linked with government spending, period.

Also, does the fact that Musk bet his entire fortune means he's a freeloader on corporate welfare?

⬐ reubenmorais

And also, you know… the entire field of computer science.

⬐ fjk

I thought this was an insightful look at Elon Musk, the man. It looks like his eyes are actually tearing up when discussing the NASA contract.

Another area of the interview I found telling was when Musk described 2008 and how he essentially lost all his money, got divorced, and almost faced a nervous breakdown. Musk isn't some billionaire playboy, he's a brilliant man with the conviction to take bold risks that could change the world and he's experienced the highs and lows of that journey. I'll admit I was a Musk fan before watching this interview, but now I'm even more impressed with him.

⬐ neolefty

How does that crisis compare to Jobs' crisis with NeXT? My understanding is that he had a reality check that took about a decade, during which he and the people who worked with him pushed extremely hard, nearly failed, and were saved by the Apple buyout.

Musk has also accumulated tales of his immaturity as a business leader -- trying to switch PayPal to Windows, for example -- but if 2008 was a turning point for him, then he went through it a lot faster than Jobs.

Of course plenty of other people who have gone through crises and come out the other side much more fit. The entrepreneur's hero's journey?

⬐ l33tbro

In the immortal words of Keanu Charles Reeves, "Whoa". So much admiration for this guy. For once, it's actually nice to see one of my heroes getting mainstream media coverage like this. The guy has broken through to the mainstream by being himself and staying true to his engineering roots. You look at a guy like Jobs and it was always such a hokey, patronizing, and calculated exercise with his Houdini-esque product launches. Elon's humility and grit should be an inspiration to all.

⬐ mas644

elon = grit, as an entrepreneur when i have dark times, i'll read about him to get amped. my favorite quote: "Optimism, pessimism, fuck that; we’re going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I’m hell-bent on making it work." -- back in 2008 after the SpaceX Falcon rocket failed to make orbit 3 times. More context: http://dcurt.is/elon-musks-determination

⬐ None

None

⬐ adventured

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:f5hUrv2...

Cached because wired seems to have disappeared the original:

http://www.wired.com/science/space/news/2008/08/musk_qa

Interesting to note that when he said that, in the third quarter of 2008, he was in the middle of a complete implosion across everything in his life. Adds a very dramatic quality to it.

⬐ cipher0

Thanks for linking, yeah it was an extremely tough period for him.

⬐ antonioevans

One of the parts of the interview that gave me chills was when they mentioned, Elon had seen the future and brought it back.

I think most of us on HN are building the future for a world that lives in the past and I think it's beautiful. We're trying to craft something that doesn't exist yet... but can.

Not many professions do that.

⬐ andrewtbham

Since the car is so quiet... I wonder if the noise the car makes on these clips is an overdub.

⬐ sahaskatta

The sound is definitely from the vehicle which is doing the filming. The Tesla Model S does not sound like that.

⬐ stackcollision

There was an interesting section in "The Cat Who Walks Through Walls" where Heinlein writes about electric cars, and how the law eventually required them to install speakers which produced fake engine sounds. This was because the cars were so quiet that no one would hear them coming, and they'd step out into the road without looking.

⬐ voidlogic

Which is silly if the car is going faster that 15 mph (edit: actually 18.6 mph) . At these speeds what you are hearing is the road (tire) noise, not the engine.

⬐ hughes

"The car has no transmission" - as you hear an engine downshifting multiple times

⬐ kevincennis

Was wondering the same thing. Those really sounded like engine noises (at maybe 1:30 or so. Right after the first break).

⬐ bsilvereagle

Jalopnik thinks they were dubbed: http://oppositelock.jalopnik.com/why-is-60-minutes-dubbing-m...

But I also remember reading somewhere that the ADA was pushing for electric cars to emit noise for deaf and hard hearing pedestrians.

⬐ andrewtbham

Electric vehicle warning sounds

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_vehicle_warning_sounds

⬐ dm2

"But I also remember reading somewhere that the ADA was pushing for electric cars to emit noise for deaf and hard hearing pedestrians."

I read a similar one except it was regarding blind pedestrians.

I'm not sure how a silent vehicle would affect deaf person.

⬐ bsilvereagle

And that is why I shouldn't post comments online when I should be sleeping. You're right, it was for blind pedestrians.

⬐ kayoone

If he would have crashed and burned in 2008 (and he was very very close to it) mankind literally would have lost a few decades of advancement i guess.

⬐ tbolse

I wonder how fast everyone forgets the real founders of Tesla: Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, and all credit is put on Elon. I am sure he deserves a lot of credit for his foresight, strategic decisions and also his execution... Bottom line he bought himself into the electric car game, which was itself a very good strategic move.

⬐ simonh

He was chairman of the board from month 7, and personalty won two design awards for his work leading the engineering team on the first car. Bottom line, he deserves all the credit he gets.

⬐ dingaling

> When the other big automakers get into the electric car mindset, who are they going to buy batteries from?

Umm... LG? They have an enormous operation already supplying GM and Renault, two big rivals.

⬐ technophilliac

In this world, where everyone finds everything with Google, Elon is one of the few persons thinking through his mind.. More here: http://techgeekforever.com/2014/02/20/elon-musk-one-man-who-... Found this on StumbleUpon

⬐ gavinpc

Am I the only one who got an ad for Chevrolet? Pretty awesome that GM helped pay for the segment.

(Also for Viagra... not sure about that one.)

⬐ jonwachob91

I only got Viagra... For all the related videos too... Is CBS trying to tell me something :(

⬐ None

None

⬐ MimiZ

Someone brought this up to me:

"If Elon Musk wanted to revolutionize the car industry, why didn't he figure out how to recycle the materials of the existing cars into Tesla somehow? Instead of making more new cars? Sure, the new cars are more environmentally friendly and sustainable but that doesn't solve the existing waste problem."

⬐ cheald

Which materials in particular are being referred to? Teslas don't use any rare-earth metals in their motors or batteries, and we're not exactly short on steel and aluminum.

⬐ None

None

⬐ amac

It's got to be said that most of the wealth created in the last 50 years or so has been in either financial or software engineering.

Musk is a bit of a throw-back right to the 19th and 20th centuries in this regard. Humanity could do with more folks like him if we're to see real progress in our life-time.

⬐ mavdi

Imagine the kind of scum it would take to bet against Tesla's success.

Here is Musk, improving human life, clearing our air and probably taking us to Mars one day and on the opposite, we have scumbags waiting to make a quick buck and working actively, bribing legislatures to make Tesla a failure.

⬐ tempestn

Great quote from the interview with Musk. He first said that he actually expected when he started Tesla that most likely it would fail. When asked why he did it then, he answered, "If something is important enough, you should try even if the probable outcome is failure."

⬐ lugg

Anyone have a mobile link that works?

edit: link

⬐ alexeckermann

Video playback on the web is such a farce.

Luckily with some poking around you can find the m3u8 playlist URL in the HTML source in plain sight: http://ipad-streaming.cbsnews.com/media/mpx/2014/03/30/21153...

⬐ espitia

Thank you!

⬐ j1z0

Thanks for the link.

As for CBS. I don't want your g@$

⬐ Namrog84

Yeah that site doesn't seem to work for me on mobile either :/

⬐ None

None

⬐ MicroBerto

I know I'm not the typical reader, but there's literally no single article or video that will ever get me to install an app to read it.

I wonder what their conversion rate on this is.

⬐ njharman

I hope it is close to zero. Proprietary bullshit is bullshit.

⬐ kayoone

Is that old footage ? Just wondering because it portrays his second wife Talulah Riley, but (german) wikipedia states they have been divorced for 2 years already.

⬐ jonwachob91

My understanding is that their divorce was just a rumor...

⬐ samelliot

Not sure about their marital status but her twitter account suggests they are still a family: https://twitter.com/TalulahRiley

⬐ shuaib

I am thankful to Woz for giving us Apple. And thankful to Musk for a promising future in the industries he is venturing in.

⬐ davidiach

Why does it show in this interview that Musk is married to Talulah Riley? Are they not divorced?

⬐ SuperChihuahua

They were, but then they got back again

⬐ mike2477

Definitely makes me want to buy Tesla stock. My guess is that Elon is on a road show to get the stock price back up. He'll probably stop by New York Times, ABC and others this week and the stock price will shoot back up to $230.

⬐ kelvin0

Makes every other startup seem so trivial ...

⬐ hyp0

Be like Musk: don't give up til you've failed three times... and given it one more try.

⬐ jeffreyrufino

Love live Elon Musk! I'll be buying a Telsa when it comes to Australia

⬐ NN88

LOL at the part about his wife.

⬐ rokhayakebe

While we are on the subject, I would love to see "car chassis + engine + trans" as a service.

⬐ Jarred

I think the most interesting thing about Tesla is it's applicability to SpaceX. If the goal of Tesla is to provide a better energy source (where "better" is defined as capacity and environmentally friendly) and SpaceX's primary constraint is the energy source, then long-term they'll be the same company.

⬐ tambourine_man

“What's important to Musk is reducing green house gas, which he believes, threaten the world”

That kind of phrasing annoys me deeply, it tries to spin scientific consensus as if it's a disputed issue.

⬐ tambourine_man

Anyone care to explain the reason for the downvotes?

⬐ pjkundert

The day scientific consensus fails to be a disputed issue is the day science begins to die.

⬐ tambourine_man

How often do you see the BigBang or Plate Tectonics being reported as a controversy? There is a pile of evidence supporting anthropogenic climate change, but it's constantly downplayed as something one “believes” in or not.

⬐ coreymgilmore

Musk is thinking 8 steps ahead of almost everyone. While Tesla is a huge play with revolutionizing the car world, there are some other parts in play.

First, his Gigafactory to produce batteries. When the other big automakers get into the electric car mindset, who are they going to buy batteries from? Musk who owns the single largest and high-tech battery factory (that produces on an enormous scale), or other battery producers who have less economies of scale and higher prices? Obviously, lower prices win and Musk ends up selling batteries to his competitors...genius.

Second, when other manufacturers get into the electric car game they are going to need nationwide chargers. Did you think that the Tesla and Supercharger of proprietary connectors for no reason? Since Tesla will have a huge nationwide system before anyone else, Musk will license the rights to use his chargers. Again, making money from the competition. Competitors will not have the ability to compete on charging when they release cars because Tesla will already have an established network.

As for SpaceX...thats a whole another post for another day.

⬐ jcdavis

> Did you think that the Tesla and Supercharger of proprietary connectors for no reason

This isn't just entirely for a competitive advantage, although I'm sure they plan on licensing as you mention.

The fact is none of the existing DC charging standards can handle nearly as much power as Tesla's system can. CHAdeMO can handle up to 62kW (but most are 50kW or less), and some of the new Combo chargers have demonstrated (but not implemented) ~100kW. Superchargers can do 120kW right now, and Tesla has claimed they will up this to 135. As with so much of what they do, the existing state of the art is just so far behind they had no option but to roll their own. Everything else that exists currently is simply too slow for recharging during long distance trips (which nobody else cares about, because no other BEV has anywhere near the range)

⬐ WalterBright

This reminds me of how Edison decided he needed to invent and build an electric utility system in order to sell light bulbs.

⬐ stcredzero

Musk is thinking 8 steps ahead of almost everyone.

I think he's just thinking from first principles and it's the rest of us that have convoluted reality with a panoply of suppositions and just-so stories. People like Musk only seem like they have a "reality distortion field because we're seeing his simple conclusions through the lens of our own distortions. (It's us that have the 8-steps, in a tortured circle.)

⬐ eli_gottlieb

That's a really good way to put it. And combining with that, he's got enough money that he can afford far-sightedness.

⬐ bittercynic

He seems to have a Reality Clarification Field to me.

⬐ adventured

I agree with a lot of what you said. However, this:

"Competitors will not have the ability to compete on charging when they release cars because Tesla will already have an established network."

is dramatically wrong. They will absolutely compete on charging, stubbornly so, and probably leveraging politics in the process. The major energy companies will also get into the charging business (much like the oil companies did with gasoline stations), and they too will fight with Tesla on standards, and attempt to set their own. The one guarantee is that the energy industry, filled full of extremely powerful companies used to dominating and getting their way, will not simply go along with Musk because he got there first (ditto for Ford and GM). That's not to say Tesla's standard will or won't prevail (or whether several will win out), but rather that there will be a long fight over it, and the competition will be belligerent.

⬐ cushychicken

I'm still going to bet on the guy who has put something in space.

⬐ threeseed

Yes. Because it's not like the other guys have decades of experience in the automobile industry.

⬐ 001sky

Or, the regulatory capture industry.

⬐ coreymgilmore

I very much agree with you: energy companies and other auto manufacturers will get into the charging business. They have to!

But I defend my point based on this: Would you buy a car that has an established charging network, or a car with only a few chargers nationwide? Of course, the established network since there is less worry about "filling up". This is a direct mirror of today's issue with electric vehicles: there isn't a large charging network. Tesla has been competing against other vehicles that have no range anxiety. Similarly, if GM produces a car to use only a GM charger buyers will feel this anxiety and tend toward an easier solution. Therefore, it would only make sense for GM to license the rights to use Tesla chargers since GM can quell range fears and still make money off the car sale.

As for a standard in charging. This is going to be a long fight. The energy and auto industry (minus Tesla) has the political power and money to force a standard many times over. The question becomes: accept a standard because it exists and was funded well (feature phones), or choose something new because it is supremely better (iPhone 1).

Who knows, I enjoyed your response. It made me rethink about this.

⬐ antimagic

I think the best way to think about this is to think of the mobile phone network. Do you sign up with AT&T or do you sign up with T-Mobile? Despite T-Mobile's (allegedly - I don't live in the US, so I'm just going on what people say) better customer service, their network is just far less prevalent compared to AT&T's which enables AT&T to maintain its hold on customers. But T-Mobile continues to build out its network, having already achieved the point where there is enough of a network to pick up the necessary customers to fund the continued expansion of the network.

I would see car chargers going the same way. From now on, if you want to play in this market, you're going to have to face down Tesla's advantage in the charging network. This is Tesla building a moat to make it harder for competitors, but as with all moats, it is not unbreachable - with enough resources, a competitor can achieve a minimal viable network which gets them a foothold in the market.

⬐ dippyskoodlez

Part of the problem with that comparison is while you can make do without cell reception, lack of charging for your car... will leave you stranded.

⬐ shas3

It is not uncommon for manufacturers of 'systems' to hedge their bets by becoming suppliers of components to competitors. Examples abound in the cell phone industry: Samsung makes Apple's A series chips and possibly, other components.

It is not a certainty that Tesla's battery manufacturing facilities can lower the price of batteries to achieve the < $30k per-car price point. I'd imagine a single factory that also sells to other car makers will solve the existing problem with scale. Currently, making/procuring 10k batteries a year is probably a big factor in making them so costly. It is almost universally true that manufacturing in larger numbers will bring down the price (probably not in a linear way, rather logarithmically).

⬐ hyp0

Infrastructure has been surprisingly important to a few innovations in the past: Edison didn't just invent a commercially viable light bulb... he also built the power stations (which of course didn't exist before they were needed); Mr Birdseye didn't just freeze fish... he (actually the company that bought him out) established freezers in supermarkets (which of course didn't exist before they were needed).

⬐ nawitus

Nissan has built far more battery producing capabilities.

⬐ mncolinlee

They certainly won't be dependent upon Tesla.

In fact, Nissan's Tennessee plant can already manufacture 200,000 battery packs per year. They have been in the game of producing new battery chemistry technologies since 2009, when they started work on a technology partnership to bring Lithium NMC batteries to production vehicles.

⬐ Fuxy

His move is economical as well as and advantage for his business.

If you take him for his word and since he believes in breaking down a problem into its individual components and improve it the the only reason he is building the battery factory is because he saw the opportunity and the potential to make a batter and cheaper battery.

And on the issues of charging stations is he needs them anyway and it's not like there's a standardized connector for quickly charging a car so he made his own, he would have done the same it there was a connector but it wasn't any good, however i doubt he would have done it if there wasn't an engineering advantage.

⬐ Cthulhu_

I'm not convinced about the success of their mega battery factory; after all, wasn't there a big problem with getting rare earth materials for things like batteries a while ago? Is there enough raw material to keep it supplied?

⬐ cfreeman

There aren't any rare-earth materials in Tesla's batteries.

⬐ warfangle

The S doesn't use any rare earth materials in its motor, either.

⬐ purringmeow

Makes me think how much we need a revolution in batteries.

I am wondering if there will be a new type of batteries soon or maybe we'll get improved capacity by slapping a software layer that manages charging/discharging.

⬐ cushychicken

We've needed one for ages! Lithium ion is the best we can do so far, and it has two GAPING flaws:

* tons of energy is lost as heat * volatility of the chemical storage mechanism occasionally causes that heat to get released as an explosion

I'd love to see Musk's solution end up in a massive increase in battery performance.

⬐ thret

I've been adamant that we've needed a battery revolution since Terminator. Batteries were the major hurdle 30 years ago and they still today.

I can't believe it's been 30 years.

⬐ jjoonathan

It's been 160 years since the first hydrogen fuel cell and the lead-acid battery were invented.

⬐ purringmeow

I've looked around and it seems there are lithium-sulfur based batteries with 10x capacity and all in all lasting 4x

Source: http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/157525-new-sulfur-based-b...

⬐ will_hughes

As far as I can tell - there's lots of "interesting" energy storage technology being researched, but there's nothing that's close to being ready for at-scale manufacturing.

⬐ dpcheng2003

What's amazing is that Tesla has been providing NRE R&D for OTHER automotive companies for years already. Last year, $15 million of their revenue was from development services but as early as 2011, $55 million of revenue (>25%) was from basically doing powertrain design for companies like Toyota and Mercedes.

Link to last 10-K: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/0001193125140...

Tesla will definitely make a killing on batteries. I actually think the supercharger network is going to REMAIN proprietary as a competitive advantage for Tesla vs. other electric car companies. As someone who's done research in this in the past, there are already well-established standards adopted by the IEEE and companies like GE for charging. This is obviously to encourage the adoption of the technology.

However, since most electric charging networks are run by private companies or utilities, we may have the "roaming charge" issue that telecom had once upon a time. In other words, if you lived in Texas and got your electric charge from your local utility as part of your monthly bill, you may have to pay "roaming charge fees" for charging in California.

But if you're on the Tesla network, the "fuel" is part of your purchase price. This is Apple-level walled garden tactics and it demonstrates the foresight of Elon Musk and his team. What an incredible entrepreneur.

⬐ andrewtbham

Tesla has always said their goal is to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles. I suspect they will try to sell other car companies the drivetrains and rights to the super chargers.

⬐ threeseed

The charging network also has a lot of risks associated with it. There are 192 other countries in this world all of whom will be looking to charging standards as opposed to relying on a single American company. This means that some time in the near future Tesla will have to go back and retrofit their cars/stations to meet this standard.

Apple's walled garden strategy works because the devices are cheap and relatively throw away. Cars are not.

⬐ malandrew

Few cars cross borders relative to those that are driven exclusively or almost exclusively relative to those that always drive in country. That being the case, so long as I can use an adapter when I take my car into another country with a different standard, I would be mostly fine.

⬐ hippee-lee

Could that be sold as an upgrade, something akin to the international outlet kits that apple sells for it's laptop chargers?

⬐ greglindahl

Tesla cars are already compliant with J1772 (a small adapter that comes with every car) and CHAdeMO ($1,000 adapter, coming soon.)

⬐ None

None