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Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages

Carlota Perez · 4 HN comments
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'Carlota Perez's insightful analysis of the rapid growth and diffusion of new technologies in general, and Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) in particular, is a welcome antidote to the bullish and ahistorical hyperbole of the datacom era. . . Do read the book. It is important. It is accessible. It is well presented. It is also fun.' - Raphie Kaplinsky, Technovation 'It was Carlota Perez in the early 1980s, who designated the major changes in technology systems, such as mechanization, electrification or computerization, as ''changes of techno-economic paradigm'' a designation which has since been widely adopted. In this book she offers many new insights into these complex processes of social, economic and technological change. She traces the interactions between that part of the economy commonly known as ''financial capital'' and the evolution of technologies. Although this was an important aspect of Schumpeter's original work, it has been neglected by his followers, so that the book fills an important gap in the literature on business cycles and innovations. I most strongly commend it to all those attempting to understand the past and future evolution of technology and the economy.' - Christopher Freeman, SPRU - Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex, UK and Maastricht University, The Netherlands 'Before I read this book I thought that the history of technology was - to borrow Churchill's phrase - merely ''one damned thing after another''. Not so. Carlota Perez shows us that historically technological revolutions arrive with remarkable regularity, and that economies react to them in predictable phases. Her argument provides much needed perspective not just on history, but on our own times. And especially on our own information revolution.' - W. Brian Arthur, Santa Fe Institute, New Mexico 'This is a smashing book. It informs us that the emphasis on finance that marked the excesses of the 1990s has historically occurred with each great wave of new technologies, only to later shift the focus back to production. Fascinating. May the shift happen again soon.' - Richard R. Nelson, Columbia University Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital presents a novel interpretation of the good and bad times in the economy, taking a long-term perspective and linking technology and finance in an original and convincing way. Carlota Perez draws upon Schumpeter's theories of the clustering of innovations to explain why each technological revolution gives rise to a paradigm shift and a 'New Economy' and how these 'opportunity explosions', focused on specific industries, also lead to the recurrence of financial bubbles and crises. These findings are illustrated with examples from the past two centuries: the industrial revolution, the age of steam and railways, the age of steel and electricity, the emergence of mass production and automobiles, and the current information revolution/knowledge society. By analyzing the changing relationship between finance capital and production capital during the emergence, diffusion and assimilation of new technologies throughout the global economic system, this seminal book sheds new light on some of the most pressing economic problems of today. A bold interpretation of how the changing relationship between technological advances and financial capital shapes the patterns of economic cycles, this path-breaking book will provide essential insights for business leaders, policymakers, academics and others concerned with managing change in the world economy.
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One of the fascinating observations in Carlota Perez's "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages" [1] is that outdated technological industries continued to provide superior returns even after they'd been supplanted. You'd have more money today if you'd invested in Exxon in the mid 1970s than if you'd put the money in IBM, even though Exxon has slipped from the top 10 to something like 40th place in the S&P. Meanwhile, railroads peaked at 60% of the US stock market around 1860, shrinking to less 2%, yet continued to beat the market for the next 120 years. Discussed recently on the Rational Reminder [2] podcast.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Technological-Revolutions-Financial-C...

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEwwtjDo1dU

Jul 06, 2016 · axplusb on End of Cycle?
I would recommend the book Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages [0] by scholar Carlotta Perez. She studies longer cycles though (~50 years) but the mechanism she describes seems pretty sound for the matter at hand.

It goes more or less like this:

- capital in search for long term returns goes to early moves of a big technological shift

- as successes from the new technology get more and more apparent, it attracts a much larger slice of capital available, and eventually gets over-funded (the real opportunity of this technology is limited)

- a bubble forms, most capital is in for a quick speculative return

- back to square one with a new technology (and former bubble bursts)

[0] https://www.amazon.com/Technological-Revolutions-Financial-C...

dredmorbius
An excellent if obscure book. Interesting to find another fan.

I'm not convinced she's right, I think she's more right than most, and she's definitely interesting and well-researched.

This is the Perez book I mentioned: http://www.amazon.com/Technological-Revolutions-Financial-Ca...

If you follow Marc Andreeson, Chris Dixon, Fred Wilson, etc, you'll see they are all very fond of her work too.

Thiel is just one of many people listed in the acknowledgements of The Great Stagnation. I've previously watched the interview you linked, and was quite surprised by Cowen's acknowledgment of Thiel as "one of the greatest and most important public intellectuals of our entire time."

However, as the Salon article notes, Cowen himself was a latecomer to the debate (The Great Stagnation was published in 2011). Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital[0], by Carlota Perez, was published in 2003, while Robert J. Gordon has been writing about the topic since at least 2000[1].

During the early 2000s, Thiel and Clarium Capital were incorrectly fixated on peak oil, rather than on the real estate bubble (relevant in the short term) or general stagnation (relevant in the long term)[2]:

> [B]y February 2009 oil prices had temporarily fallen back to almost $40 again. And though Thiel had foreseen the real estate bubble, he still underestimated it. “We didn’t fully believe our own theories about how bad things were,” he admits.

This misunderstanding of the macro picture cost Thiel dearly, with Clarium shrinking 90% from 2008-2010[3], as investors withdrew their money from what was clearly a losing strategy.

0: http://www.amazon.com/dp/1843763311

1: http://www.nber.org/papers/w7833

2: http://fortune.com/2014/09/04/peter-thiels-contrarian-strate...

3: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-01-12/clarium-he...

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