HN Books @HNBooksMonth

For anyone reading this deep in the thread: read Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, The Dictator's Handbook. A variations of a few simple rules result in virtually all models of government. And none of them involve technical competence.

https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...

⬐ totetsu

Or watch the CGP grey 'rules for rulers' adaption of it on youtube

⬐ outworlder

I rewatch that video from time to time. It's amazing how accurate that is, despite what academics say.

⬐ SimDeBeau

What do academics say?

This book explains all: https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...

1. Mitigate risk

2. Corollary of #1: never take a client providing over 10% of your annual revenue, or table personal assets to grow

3. keep your legal positions clear: talk with contract, copyright and trademark lawyers early

4. keep your tax strategy clear: talk with regional corporate accountants, and customs brokers early

5. Prioritize revenue: without a profit-mode your project is not a business

6. Corollary of #5: provide _paying_ customers value they are happy with, or cull the project

7. Manage or be managed: you are running a business, and not a charity. There are several styles for doing this, and no way is perfect. Often hiring friends is a mistake, as when serious money starts to flow people often revert to their primordial rodent brains.

8. Marketing: your conversion rate is below 1.7% ? than adapt/cull the project…

9. low hanging fruit is usually rotten: if it is something some kids can _appear_ to copy to make a quick buck, than the market will quickly fragment. a.k.a. “chasing the long tail” of market distributions is financial suicide

10. admit you can’t know every scam, and accept as a business there are always losses. As a small entity you are vulnerable to all sorts of legal, technological, and personal attacks. Technical people often think being smart somehow immunizes them from cons some sociopaths mastered... it doesn’t... talk with people, and you will see this is a very common bias.

11. With shareholders one must acknowledge the structures of power: https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...

12. post failed projects on your website as bait, so when the business-intelligence people show-up looking for soft-targets... they too can enjoy the losses... nothing more enjoyable than watching irrationally competitive opportunists go bankrupt pumping money into something you wisely abandoned. ;-)

I wouldn’t call my entities successful by “startup” standards, but they have remained profitable for over 14 years... and they are mine.

You should read "The Dictator's Handbook". Dictators may be driven to externally irrational behavior by what appear internally to be an entirely rational chain of decisions. And I mean rational in the Homo economus sense of the word.

https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...

⬐ crimsonalucard

Thanks I'll check it out. Sounds similar to the tragedy of the commons where the opposite phenomenon is in affect.

Rational decisions made by individual actors when measured in aggregate become irrational.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/162/3859/1243

⬐ jamesbritt

More about Hardin's essay:

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/voices/the-tragedy-of-t...

> The Tragedy of the Tragedy of the Commons The man who wrote one of environmentalism’s most-cited essays was a racist, eugenicist, nativist and Islamaphobe—plus his argument was wrong

⬐ crimsonalucard

Hardin's thesis has nothing to do with his character. Please comment on the thesis and try to seperate facts away from the personality of the person saying it. As vile as this sounds, a person being racist does not automatically make all his observations false, it does not mean anything.

Either way, his essay is largely cited in academia from political science to anthropology. A blog post illustrating some factual anomalies (which in turn can also be debatable) does not render the heart of his essay wrong.

It's good to know the background of the author of an essay, but it is bad form and borderline propaganda to use that to discount an insightful observation about the world as we know it.

⬐ jamesbritt

People reference the essay, and in so doing they are referencing the whole essay, including the nasty parts.

People doing this need to be aware of that; I suspect many are not.

Being cited doesn't make anything true, so I'm not sure what that has to do with it being correct or not.

There does exist scholarly work disputing Hardin's conjecture. For example, the work of Elinor Ostrom of Indiana University.

"Ostrom received the 2009 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for her groundbreaking research demonstrating that ordinary people are capable of creating rules and institutions that allow for the sustainable and equitable management of shared resources. She shared the prize with Oliver Williamson, a University of California economist."

http://elinorostrom.indiana.edu/

⬐ crimsonalucard

>Being cited doesn't make anything true, so I'm not sure what that has to do with it being correct or not.

Being cited lends more legitimacy to it being true. Think of it like a vote. One person cited it because he thinks it's true. A vote from academia is worth more than a vote from a popular science magazine.

>"Ostrom received the 2009 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for her groundbreaking research demonstrating that ordinary people are capable of creating rules and institutions that allow for the sustainable and equitable management of shared resources. She shared the prize with Oliver Williamson, a University of California economist."

I think you missed the point. No one is saying that humans can't change their behavior. The article is describing a phenomenon that happens when people act rationally in a certain context. Of course with higher level knowledge of higher level contexts like how shared commons can be destroyed with rational individualistic behavior people can change.

It's also one of the subjects in The Dictator's Handbook, an excellent layman's read on political economics by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith.

https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...

If you want the hardcore game theory version, check out The Logic of Political Survival by the same authors: https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/gov2126/files/bueno_mesquita...

In light of the prior article about ICANN as an unaccountable private company (1), this is a good time to encourage everyone to read Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's The Dictator's Handbook (2). This is a classic setup for dictatorship by a small cabal (the board): a vast, unempowered populace, a clear source of money (increasing domain fees), and a fairly small elite that needs to be compromised, particularly relative to the size of the unempowered populace.

If governments and corporations haven't already started buying influence, I'd be shocked.

(1) https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/sep/21/icann-int...

(2) https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...

> That's so wester/occidental... Who says that democracy is such a good news ?

"The Dictator's Handbook" [1] does a good job of explaining various political systems lays down and presents an argument for why people in democracies have more freedoms and are generally more prosperous.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...

No need to call others' opinions ignorant when you have another one. Here's a good book dealing with foreign aids, among other things:

https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...

⬐ rayiner

I use "ignorant" quite deliberately; the opinion of U.S. foreign aid as having strings attached to benefit the U.S. is literally ignorant of what U.S. foreign aid projects and funding look like.

I haven't read the book, but de Mesquita is addressing something different, the fact that foreign aid can enable bad leaders to stay in power by giving them a flow of benefits they can use to reward cronies and placate the populace: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/10/opinion/10DeMesquita.html. That may well be true, but it's a criticism of foreign aid in general; note that de Mesquita is associate with the Hoover Institution, which believes that government-to-government foreign aid is inherently misguided: https://www.hoover.org/research/better-approach-foreign-aid.

De Mesquita does not contend that U.S. foreign aid is a form of "empire building" intended to make recipient countries dependent on the U.S. or confer direct economic benefits to the U.S. (Even if the U.S. is driven by the possibility of indirect benefit from having more capitalistic countries on the world stage, along with a stable world order, that is something quite different from seeking an "empire").

⬐ marklgr

IIRC, he claims that foreign aids directly help autocratic rulers stay in place, by giving them means to pay off their vital support. So he says that it clearly prevents uplifting people or teaching them democracy, since they are the first victims of dictatorship.

⬐ rayiner

I'd go even further than that and say that foreign aid helps keep badly-run democratic governments stay in place (e.g. in Bangladesh). Being skeptical about whether foreign aid achieves the desired effect is very different than saying that the U.S. provides foreign aid for purposes of "empire building."

Read The Dictator's Handbook. Then come back and tell me if I'm rambling.

https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...

⬐ None

None

⬐ perfmode

Thanks for the link. I'm sure we all might find more coherence in the barcode on the back than was present within the entirety of your wandering treatise.

⬐ boomboomsubban

Now, I'll start by saying i haven't read the book. The description says all leaders are supremely focused on maintaining power. Given that, how can you possibly argue that the US killing anyone it considers a "bad person" without jurisprudence is a moral act?

⬐ wallace_f

That highlights the cognitive dissonance in his post:

>There are a lot of bad people in the world, and quite a fraction of countries are ruled by them. Thugs respond to power.

The US is still a good country, with a good government, but it's ridiculous to assume it immune to the same threats of tyranny as every other nation.

> people think CGP Grey is a scholar on so many topics just because he sounds calm and confident

His "Rules for Rulers" video is an excellent summary of The Dictator's Handbook [1], itself a summary of well-regarded selectorate theory [2]. I have yet to watch a CPG Grey video which does not honestly separate fact from opinion, and ensure the former is well sourced.

His delivery is excellent. But that, alone, is not substitute for well-written and -researched material.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selectorate_theory

⬐ ebbv

Some of his videos are better than others. But his videos are as slanted towards his view as anything else. What facts you present and how you present them is both a conscious and unconscious result of your own worldview (some things you will see as relevant or irrelevant, and some things you won't even be aware of because of who you are and what you've read, etc.)

But regardless, replying to someone with "Hey watch this 40 minute CGP Grey video which explains why you're wrong." is both hilarious and insulting on multiple levels.

⬐ dfabulich

OK, how about: hey, read The Dictator's Handbook which explains why you're wrong. It's $12, 354 pages long, and not the least bit insulting.

⬐ JumpCrisscross

> is both hilarious and insulting on multiple levels

CPG Grey's summaries are just that, summaries. They miss nuance by design. In many cases nuance isn't necessary. If someone is arguing over what is on what continent, CPG Grey's "What Are Continents?" video [1] is an acceptable response. It's just a summary. But even the summary adequately shows the baselessness of the question.

TL; DR CPG Grey's videos are, on average, of better quality than many newspapers, blogs and other secondary sources. It's perfectly fine to reference them.

[1] http://www.cgpgrey.com/blog/what-are-continents.html

It's definitely not one guy. This is a great read which helped me understand the perspective and situations dictators, and nation leaders in general, often face.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1610391845/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_awdb_ISy...

⬐ lkbm

CGP Grey did a video based on this book for those who want a short (uh...I mean 20-minute) introduction: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs

Which "Dictator's Handbook"? There are two on Amazon.

[1] The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics

https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...

[2] The Dictator's Handbook: A Practical Manual for the Aspiring Tyrant

https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Practical-Manual-A...

⬐ Bakary

They're referring to the one by Mesquita because it was popularized by a recent CGP grey video

⬐ killjoywashere

I was referring to the one by Mesquita, but because my brother, an attorney, recommended it, not because of a GCP grey video. Perhaps you meant "I think it's because..."?

⬐ zafiro17

I'm the author of the second book. Happy to offer Hacker News readers the epub/mobi/pdf at no charge. [email protected]

⬐ killjoywashere

I was referring to the first one, but your offer is quite generous.

The Dictator's Handbook: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1610391845

Fascinatingly relevant right now.

⬐ hueving

>Fascinatingly relevant right now.

How so?

⬐ scrollaway

The book talks a lot about the differences between getting to power and holding power. It also talks about the differences between democracies, dictatorships etc.

⬐ trendia

The guy who we liked expanded executive power and now the guy who we don't like inherited it.

> They see through it. They just know they have no other option.

To add to this, administrators know if they don't hire extensively they are likely to be replaced by someone who will. There is no control mechanism. Giving students a small periodic vote in respect of their top administration would go a long way towards ameliorating such corruption.

The "Dictator's Handbook" covers such topics https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...

By allowing their bureaucrats free rein to terrorize local businesses and extract mob-style protection payments, among other things. Excessive regulation. Basic, garden-variety corruption. Same stuff that goes on in every other autocratic country the world over.

Right now, Hong Kong is way too valuable as an economic engine, but the political dangers are more pressing to the CCCP. So the government will clamp down on freedoms as best they can until the citizens can't take it anymore, then keep beating the horse until it's dead.

You should read the book The Dictator's Handbook if you want to understand it better.

https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...

⬐ baybal2

>The Dictator's Handbook

Author shows poor understanding of real world politics and cheap writing. The type of people who read such books are ones who read The Prince and believe themselves politically educated.

⬐ anonbanker

Your post is an appeal to ridicule wrapped around an ad-hominem, unless you're planning on enlightening us as to where real-world politics and the grandparent's book are incongruent.

⬐ vinceguidry

Anybody who just reads one book will be poorly educated. Doesn't matter how good the book is.

⬐ shaobo

The book is all well and good, but I would prefer to read an actual article about "allowing their bureaucrats free rein to terrorize local businesses and extract mob-style protection payments".

It is easy claim that China is autocratic therefore it must do X bad things

⬐ vinceguidry

> It is easy claim that China is autocratic therefore it must do X bad things

If you read the book you wouldn't need the articles because then you'd understand how they work.

A good China-specific book to read is:

https://www.amazon.com/Age-Ambition-Chasing-Fortune-Truth/dp...

It doesn't deal with corruption per se, rather how China has been operating politically and economically for the last few decades. The gist of it is, so long as you play ball with the CCCP, then you can enrich yourself. But the second you step out of line, officials will happily confiscate your life's work and tell you you're lucky you're not in jail. And the only reason you're not in jail is because as long as you can make wealth that they can take, you're more useful to them free than imprisoned. If that changes, a life behind bars awaits you.

What you can do in China, any autocratic regime really, is precisely what the local thugs will allow you to do, or what you can get away with outside their attention. They may not be as smart as you, but they are more numerous and have the legal system on their side.

To complete your political education, this book will fill in the gaps between dictatorship and the kind of democracy that Anglosphere nations enjoy:

https://www.amazon.com/Inventing-Freedom-English-Speaking-Pe...

This book will show you the conditions in which freedom develops and really makes you appreciate the United States, tempered of course by the lessons in the Dictator's Handbook that tell how democratic regimes are, in general, not the forces for good in other countries that you'd like to believe they are. Would-be freedom fighters are fighting forces so much larger than they are that success or failure is entirely out of their control. Either the conditions are ripe for revolution or they aren't.

Barring some massive worldwide event, Hong Kong's future is dimming by the day. The Internet was supposed to be that event, but autocrats are more than capable of suppressing freedom there too, up to and including just shutting the whole damn thing off.