HN Books @HNBooksMonth

True. Also, if you read Superforecasting[1] you'll learn about several experiments where "non-experts" beat experts by a lot by just being well informed. Even when the experts had access to confidential data.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-P...

⬐ stev_stev

I’m very skeptical of evidentiary patterns laid out in NYT bestseller style books.

⬐ diehunde

His project[1] was part of program created by IARPA[2] so I wouldn't be that skeptical

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project

[2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_Advanced_Research...

⬐ stev_stev

Are these what the book is based off of? Or are these just the credentials of the author? In the former case I would find that more compelling to be worth looking into than just the link to the amazon book. In any case, I wasn’t trying to specifically dismiss the book (which I have not read) but just pointing out that linking to book of that sort doesn’t give me (personally) the feeling that there is much weight behind the citation. The other links you provided do the opposite!

⬐ diehunde

Yes the book is based on that project.

⬐ stev_stev

Word

⬐ MagnumOpus

You are right to be. Tetlock spun the conclusions of the project far boyond what was warranted, especially because the project was heavily flawed.

I participated in the initial part of the project, figured out the winning strategy very quickly, and then dropped my participation immediately. How to be "super at forecasting" in Tetlock's eyes? Have lots of spare time in the middle of the day when professional are at work, because that is when questions get posted, and easy points can get made. (To win a prize that is less than the hourly rate of a professional.) Hmm, no wonder that the conclusion was that people with no expertise but plenty of spare time can beat the pros...

⬐ diehunde

You mean beat the people that actually do that for a living?

⬐ SkyMarshal

Superforecasters don't have a great record on the pandemic:

https://twitter.com/outa_joseph/status/1250592983659024385?s...

Although Sam would have lost this bet, I respect that he had the courage to make a forecast with a specific number and a specific future date.

Too many pundits make grand but imprecise predictions like "AI will become dominant in the next decade". The book 'Superforcasting' tackles this problem in detail: https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-P...

⬐ harryh

If I recall correctly, the bet was accepted.

EDIT: Ah, I found documentation:

"Michael de la Maza, a Boston-based investor and TechStars mentor, has taken my recent bet on valuations."

https://twitter.com/sama/status/582292425449730049

⬐ mdlm

Thanks for using Twitter to remind Mr. Altman of the bet.

Exactly. This is the typical business drivel. "Here's a problem A, which you have. We have a solution: let B solve it for you. blah blah. Approach. Example. Anecdote.".

Problem needs to be a convincing and preferably very common problem of some kind. In this article it's "forecasting". And, of course, standard HR/Management practice (surveys + "impartial" statistical analysis in this case) is the way to solve the problem, but of course nobody does it right.

How to solve it ? Buy book X or, if you've got at least 100kg of money to thrown down a hole, hire consultant Y. Only 10kg of money to burn ? Visit website Z, subscribe, buy video, whatever, and get colorful pictures stating the obvious, often with audio.

For this one it's :

A = "forecasting" (really deciding future direction)

B = "forecasting tournaments"

X = https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-P...

Y = Philip Tetlock ( [email protected] )

Z = https://www.gjopen.com/

Now, don't get me wrong. Hiring organizational consultants CAN work, of course. Getting ideas from within an organization and being frank and fair about them can bring incredible results. Having someone else come in, see the organization and tell you what's wrong can at the very least give you an idea of what's happening from other people's perspective. Maybe it can help you improve things. If you can afford it, I would advise to do it.

I'm sure this person is a capable organizational consultant, but ...

Try Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock.

https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-P...