HN Books @HNBooksMonth

"Works" isn't sufficient for broad adoption. It has to create value by solving a widespread problem much better than alternatives. See this classic tech marketing book for more: https://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Chasm-Marketing-High-Tech-Ma...

I've been asking for positive examples for years, and I still see no signs that Bitcoin is poised for more than niche adoption. Sure, if you want to do something modestly illegal, like buying gray market prescription drugs, Bitcoin may fill a niche. But it hasn't caught on for legal transactions, and its traceability makes it bad for seriously illegal activities. And even if you're only doing something modestly illegal, you have to be pretty technical and pretty dedicated to make it work. For most people it's way easier to give cash to their friendly local drug dealer.

So yes, it doesn't have strong fundamentals. The underlying commodity, long integers, is freely available. Despite years of "Bitcoin will be widespread soon" puffery, the use value is very weak compared with alternatives. At least you could plant tulip bulbs.

⬐ discombobulate

It's legal to import prescription drugs to the UK.

P2P payment is a big one. I think kids may use it, since they can't get PayPal et al(?). Thought of that yesterday. That's a generation growing up with crypto.

Investing in startups around the world is new (via token sales).

Investing in uncorrelated assets is valuable. Eat gold.

Browser micropayments could get big (Brave browser). Ppl may even get paid for attention in the future.

Iota for the internet of thing (haven't looked into that much).

Hedge against fiat inflation.

Internet ported to decentralised infra if Trump etc start pulling 1984 bs.

Self-driving cars paying toll road via crypto (just made that up).

Solar panels off-setting their cost via crypto-mining. Then ppl have crypto to spend.

Decentralised file systems.

Decentralised storage.

That's a few whilst I whale on my legs.

⬐ lambdadmitry

I strongly suspect that your argument is dishonest. Most probably you just bought some modafinil from a couple of sellers who give big discounts when you pay them in BTC (because they are aware of the grey zone they are in). It's not really an argument for general BTC utility.

⬐ discombobulate

I bought some rapamycin. It's an immune suppressor for an autoimmune disorder.

& A few other anti-inflammatory medications. & Other bits & bobs.

I've given a list of other use cases.

I've bought modafinil before. That's legal, also. I try & be open about things. Helps against cunts who try & attack me.

Edit: bought the Moda with a CC, I think. Not from a pharmacy.

⬐ lambdadmitry

I'm sorry for my empty suspicions then. This was pretty vicious, I apologize.

⬐ discombobulate

OK. Good of you to apologise.

⬐ wpietri

These are mostly hypothetical use cases.

And that's my big problem with Bitcoin advocates. I ask, "How is Bitcoin creating value today?" And 98% of the answers I get are, "Tomorrow will be amazing!!1!" I have received that consistently for eight years.

Strong fundamentals don't include "might be amazing one day". I too enjoy science fiction, but...

⬐ discombobulate

Just checked. Most of them are real

Edit: you seem to not know they are real, because you haven't looked into it. Because you don't think it's real. Maybe someone else told you when you asked, but you didn't listen?

Edit2: Howard Marks -- the investor -- recently said bitcoin wasn't real. So you're not alone in thinking x-real-thing isn't real!

⬐ wpietri

Let's see your data. For things that drive fundamentals, I'm looking for data that a given use for Bitcoin has at least 1% market share versus competitor technologies, and hopefully above 15%, so it's clear that the idea has crossed the chasm.

⬐ discombobulate

By 15% penetration, I don't think I can get a 100x return. I've invested aggressively. Don't think that's possible even @ 1%.

I'm probably going to be holding some of the assets for a decade. Something like that. Unless the whole thing tanks.

Good investment opportunities don't come around vary often. By the next one I should have made the money back (& more).

The entire crypto-economy is worth something like 70B. Way smaller than Facebook/Goog/aapl. If you want a sure thing, crypto ain't it! I do think it's a good bet, though (asymmetric).

I've used Bitcoin again instead of a wire. Wires don't go on the weekend.

⬐ wpietri

I'm glad you are happy with your investments, but that seems entirely beside the point we are discussing.

To review, gray-area suggested Bitcoin could be a speculative bubble because there's strong exuberance and weak fundamentals. You objected to that phrase, claiming that "it works". I said that "works" is too low a standard for strong fundamentals; for that you need significant use driven by a user value proposition stronger than the alternatives.

You claimed, as best I can tell, that significant use is occurring. I am asking you for data demonstrating that. I have been asking Bitcoin advocates for that for years and never received any. You haven't given me any either. Do you have it?

⬐ discombobulate

Not significant use. Use. I guess there's two questions; 1) does something work? 2) is it popular for a given case(s). This relates to the delta vs substitutes. In the long run.

1 is yes. 2, I believe it will be. We haven't seen 2 much yet b/c time hasn't occured.

A) wires are better, as far as I can tell. For speed.

B) traditional VCs are investing in token sales, today.

C) crypto hedge funds are open today.

I never claimed there was significant use. I would argue it's a functioning system & there are strong value props (better than alts).

You know there isn't significant use. You want to wait? Wait. I'm fast follower. I like to benefit from new technology. Startups/hackers. That sort of thing. I think other ppl can benefit if they have a look. 99/100 hype is bs. Sometimes though.

It's good to be sceptical. I was.

Sounds interesting, and I kinda want to read the book. But... this also sounds a little bit rehashed, as it seems to cover similar ground to what Geoffrey Moore covered in Crossing the Chasm[1], or what Everett Rogers discussed in Diffusion of Innovations.[2]

Nonetheless, I think I'll buy this book and read it, just to see if there's any kernel of novel insight there. After all, for an innovator / entrepreneur, this is one of the most crucial issues out there.

[1]: https://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Chasm-Marketing-High-Tech-Ma...

[2]: https://www.amazon.com/Diffusion-Innovations-5th-Everett-Rog...

I found a rereading of "Crossing the chasm"[1] of enormous value recently. Many of the patterns this article "uncovers" were stated already in 1991 in the book.

[1] http://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Chasm-Marketing-High-Tech-Mai...

Geoffrey Moore covers this in Crossing the Chasm [1]. He basically suggests that you have to specialize in an industry vertical to get beyond the early adopters and into the masses. Once you cross enough verticals, then you can come back and be a more general product.

I've also heard YAGNI [2] shouted at generalizations. People can spend too much time generalizing problems for broader application that never comes. I don't know the right answer here, as it seems hard to measure how likely it will be that any generalization will be reused later. Perhaps it's ultimately judgment.

[1] http://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Chasm-Marketing-Disruptive-Ma...

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/You_aren't_gonna_need_it

⬐ iancackett

"He basically suggests that you have to specialize in an industry vertical to get beyond the early adopters and into the masses" I think that pretty-much sums it up!

I think one book you might want to read is: "Selling in a new marketspace: Getting Customers to Buy Your Innovative and Disruptive Products"

http://www.amazon.com/Selling-New-Market-Space-Innovative/dp...

One other book that is considered a classic is "Crossing the chasm"

http://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Chasm-Marketing-Disruptive-Ma...

The strategy StackExchange is following is textbook. In fact, here it is: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Crossing-Chasm-Disruptive-Mainstream...

The network effect and the quality of contributors is everything. Start in an entirely new field and you'll end up with the blind leading the blind, and the quality and reputation of the site will plummet. Just take a look at That Other Q&A Site.

For a new field, the site needs enthusiastic and highly competent contributors; otherwise it will fail.

Hmm... a few that jump to mind for me would be:

The Art of the Start - Guy Kawasaki http://www.amazon.com/Art-Start-Time-Tested-Battle-Hardened-...

Outside Innovation - Patricia Seybold http://www.amazon.com/Outside-Innovation-Customers-Co-Design...

Unleashing the Killer App - Larry Downes & Chunka Mui http://www.amazon.com/Unleashing-Killer-App-Strategies-Domin...

Wellsprings of Knowledge - Dorothy Leonard Barton http://www.amazon.com/Wellsprings-Knowledge-Building-Sustain...

The Innovators Dilemma - Clayton Christensen http://www.amazon.com/Innovators-Dilemma-Revolutionary-Busin...

Crossing the Chasm - Geoffrey A. Moore http://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Chasm-Geoffrey-Moore/dp/00605...

The Startup Game: Inside the Partnership between Venture Capitalists and Entrepreneurs - William H. Draper http://www.amazon.com/Startup-Game-Partnership-Capitalists-E...

Some of these aren't necessarily about startups, but I think they all have something valuable to offer. YMMV.

To answer #1, three books I would consider must-reads are:

Crossing the Chasm by Geoffrey Moore He discusses the Technology Adoption Lifecycle and hi-tech marketing. http://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Chasm-Geoffrey-Moore/dp/00605...

The Innovator's Dilemma by Clayton Christensen This Harvard business professor discusses what makes a disruptive innovation. http://www.amazon.com/Innovators-Dilemma-Revolutionary-Busin...

Guerrilla Marketing by Jay Levinson He discusses some scrappy techniques for promoting your businesses. Not all are applicable to web or hi-tech companies, but it can still spark some great ideas. http://www.amazon.com/Guerrilla-Marketing-4th-Inexpensive-St...

Crossing the Chasm - Geoffrey Moore

http://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Chasm-Geoffrey-Moore/dp/00605...

⬐ tptacek

Another good book where I'm not sure I know of too many people actually accomplishing something practical as a result of reading it.

⬐ nostrademons

Crossing the Chasm is mostly useful as a reality check for startup founders, i.e. just because you're on TechCrunch doesn't mean you're successful.

I don't understand his logic. It's catchy, but it means nothing. The only time that would make sense if there is a very small finite market for your product- for example- if there are only 50 people on the planet who will pay for your product and there's a reasonable chance they'll know where to find it, then yah, don't give it away. When is that ever true, though? When you sell nuclear submarine technology to 1st world governments? It sounds like you've put a lot of sweat and guts into this. I would suggest you read http://gettingreal.37signals.com/toc.php (it applies even if yours isn't a web app) and Crossing the Chasm http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0060517123 which goes into the mechanics of your market. If you took down the demo because it made your product look bad because it was incomplete, complete a smaller subset. If you took it down because someone said someone would steal your idea, welcome to startups- know that they'll steal it and move on and do it better.

⬐ juwo

released! http://juwo.com Please provide your feedback - via email or the newer thread I started

⬐ juwo

I really appreciate the advice from you all. To those who posted on this page, I can send you the demos, an executive summary and competitive matrix - if you are interested. IMHO juwo is a useful everyday tool. However, you would have to give me your word that (sorry, I dont know how to put it diplomatically) you will not rip off any new ideas. In return, perhaps, I can share a percentage of any profit from juwo - for a certain time eg. 1 year with those who will help out with concrete help. There is a lot of money in it if it catches on. Think of youtube using it for their audio/video. Feel free to email me anil AT juwo DOT com. thanks, Anil Philip